Shorting Treasury Bonds

I cut my losses real quick so have been taking a bunch of paper cuts the pass few days with TLT.
I think I am making a stand here at a $85.40 basis. The size though is about half of what I had in the $87 range so not super happy about that.
I am surprised the MOVE index is not a bit higher but it is still a pretty good spike. I would love a little more juice on this move to try to buy under $84.89.
Has to be a tough week for ZB longs. Damn, what a move.

mervyn said:
it is probably a good time to tiptoe in TLT…

keep long positions in zt still, added another 3 lots.
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metalztrader said:
I cut my losses real quick so have been taking a bunch of paper cuts the pass few days with TLT.
I think I am making a stand here at a $85.40 basis. The size though is about half of what I had in the $87 range so not super happy about that.
I am surprised the MOVE index is not a bit higher but it is still a pretty good spike. I would love a little more juice on this move to try to buy under $84.89.
Has to be a tough week for ZB longs. Damn, what a move.
More...
So long you don’t max out the leverage, adding positions is a reasonable strategy. I am building slowly, and expect rate cut talk to start. hedgers are pushing Fed to lower the rate, powell will bend over.
 
I see Powell cutting faster and faster and faster in full panic mode next year and then the real fun begins. Thats when I go long treasuries.
 
I was really happy with my trading during the opening blood bath yesterday on TLT and got my full position on now with fills long at $84.11 and $84.20. I don't really use leverage and we closed at basically my basis, I am down -0.04%. I am content to hold this position for a few years if need be and I am set at the long end of the curve.
I am looking to get a bet on in the 2-5 year duration range although I probably should have had that going yesterday too. That jobs report couldn't have been better for getting new bets on.

mervyn said:
So long you don’t max out the leverage, adding positions is a reasonable strategy. I am building slowly, and expect rate cut talk to start. hedgers are pushing Fed to lower the rate, powell will bend over.
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I took my TLT trade off today with a profit. I just don't think it is the same trade as on 10/6 with this war.
Too many possible cross currents now on the long end 20+ years for me compared to more 4 week t-bills and chill.

I am trying to think through shorting TLT now but I don't think I can get there.
 
mervyn said:
retail doesn't get those fancy stuff, stick to the basics, long or short bond futures.

i posted in another thread, shorted zn from aug 2021 at 134 range and closed at 120, that is 14k profit per contract, i had 5 contracts at one point. what a year.
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Congrats.
 
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Spot the futures BUYING opportunity.....:sneaky:
 
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