Shorting Treasury Bonds

[mervyn]

What was yesterday afternoons yield and VIX spike + market drop about?

Japan?

I am operating on the thesis that yield curve is going to correct. There will be de-dollarization and the fed isn't going to cut rates anytime soon.

coin flip

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/28/the...ht-gain-a-coin-flip-could-have-done-that.html

 

[Arnie]

I’ve been long TBF from $16

 

[mervyn]

I’ve been long TBF from $16

Probably should close short bond etf now, maybe one more rate hike and we are done. TLT broke 100 is a sign. Anyway, I trade futures only in rates, long zt but ready to sell on the good/bad news, not holding it until rate cut discussions start.

 

[mervyn]

in the green $500, want to hold for few days to see if a pure news cycle can can move the yield down a little, then exit.

out 101'176

 

[mervyn]

out 101'176

bot 3 zt 101'150 at open, let's see if '220 is in the card this week

 

[mervyn]

bot 3 zt 101'150 at open, let's see if '220 is in the card this week

add 2 101’13

 

[mervyn]

add 2 101’13

sold latter 2, 101'15, gross $250

 

[mervyn]

bot 3 zt 101'150 at open, let's see if '220 is in the card this week

as expected, closed at ‘223, but still holding the first 3 lot, easy 1.3k, let’s see next week.

 

[mervyn]

as expected, closed at ‘223, but still holding the first 3 lot, easy 1.3k, let’s see next week.

out all 3 lots at ‘215. didn’t like the news., about 1.3k profit.

 

[mervyn]

bougt 1 zt '200 last nkght and sold '250 this morning, $312.50