Shorting Oil: Someone Tell me why not

Leaving all the narratives aside this is what I most agree with. Narratives mostly cost the trader money. The proper price action read mostly makes him money.

Quote from Ironplates:

short oil when you have confirmation to short oil.

be right, not early.
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Because it's the most manipulated commodity in the market for one. Any event, real or imagined, will cause the price to spike for another. Because there are easier short positions to take.
 
There are tight supplies in the Med and NWE and the GOM is shutting in 400-500k/bbl for May maintenance. Almost every liquid curve around the world is backwardated.

Good luck.
 
Quote from trefoil:


I've never speculated in oil, so what I want to know is: what am I missing? Is this as monstrous a short as it appears?
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the only thing u are missing is to identify yourself whether u are a small trader or big trader. If u are a small trader, u will lose whether u are going short or long.


HFT traders will stop small traders out. Always have, Always will




More than 90% of small traders lose! They just lose!


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...-seen-profiting-at-small-firm-expense-1-.html


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Quote from ogarbitrage:

There are tight supplies in the Med and NWE and the GOM is shutting in 400-500k/bbl for May maintenance. Almost every liquid curve around the world is backwardated.

Good luck.
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Yeah I did forget to check the curve. Thanks for that.
 
Quote from Swan Noir:

Yes. Syria has changed the equation quite dramatically. The refugee problem -- particularly in Jordan -- has layered in a whole new level of instability. It is bad enough that Syria itself is likely to mirror Lebanon soon with a multi-faction long term civil war but if Jordan falls as well there will be real chaos.

I think the Middle East is truly a powder keg in the short term -- maybe even in coming weeks.
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"Israel Bombs Syria as the U.S. Considers Its Own Military Options"
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/04/world/middleeast/syria.html

How will oil react? Will it break out to upside out of its range? This should be bullish news for oil on Monday. If oil doesn't react to this, or if it spikes up and quickly reverses, then I'd draw the opposite conclusion.
 
Quote from pikachu9:

"Israel Bombs Syria as the U.S. Considers Its Own Military Options"
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/04/world/middleeast/syria.html

How will oil react? Will it break out to upside out of its range? This should be bullish news for oil on Monday. If oil doesn't react to this, or if it spikes up and quickly reverses, then I'd draw the opposite conclusion.
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I don't see how Syria affects anything. Not a major oil producer. Unless this turns into a wider conflict (Assad's Iraq and Iran allies), I'm not seeing it.
 
Quote from pikachu9:

Recall violence in Libya was the impetus for oil jumping from 85 to over 100. Libya produces only 500,000 bbls/annum.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/23/news/international/libya_oil_production/index.htm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production
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First article above says Libya produces 1.6 million barrels/day. That's a lot. Understandably some may have gotten knocked out by the conflict, but that number is probably what they could do with all systems humming.
For Syria I see an estimate of 400,000 barrels/day.
 
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