Shorting OIl (On This "Sure" Assumption)

[riskfreetrading]

War in middle east should stop on or before day six of this war (we are in day 4 today). One day is left for it to finish. The reason is that this war is to establish deterrence. It cannot pass day six, as otherwise the old "six days war" will be viewed as a defeat, or Gaza palestinian (a small fraction of palestinians) will declare that they have done what all arab armies combined have not done in the past. Israel must be feeling the heat of this deadline. It is likely they will ask friends to pass a UN resolution asking them to stop, or to insist that they stop it, so they can declare victory before day six.

Therefore an end to fighting will appear out of nowhere, and oil should go back to the lows.

I plan to play oil short.

What do you think of this trade and the reasoning behind it. I am looking to capitalize on my reading of what people would do in their best interests.

 

[lemeeeplay]

I think OIL has put a short term bottom here, but I don't expect a V shape recovery. I think we'll problly go side ways at these levels for a few weeks and form a base before going up.

January is also the beginning of seasonal uptrend for Oil which usually lasts into July, so that would soften downside moves.

 

[riskfreetrading]

Quote from riskfreetrading:

War in middle east should stop on or before day six of this war (we are in day 4 today). One day is left for it to finish. The reason is that this war is to establish deterrence. It cannot pass day six, as otherwise the old "six days war" will be viewed as a defeat, or Gaza palestinian (a small fraction of palestinians) will declare that they have done what all arab armies combined have not done in the past. Israel must be feeling the heat of this deadline. It is likely they will ask friends to pass a UN resolution asking them to stop, or to insist that they stop it, so they can declare victory before day six.

Therefore an end to fighting will appear out of nowhere, and oil should go back to the lows.

I plan to play oil short.

What do you think of this trade and the reasoning behind it. I am looking to capitalize on my reading of what people would do in their best interests.

Oil price is down, and also breaking news from Israel confirming RFT's prediction of war's end scenario.

"the defense establishment had recommend a diplomatic initiative to abate the war against Hamas and embark on a 48-hour truce, before it becomes necessary to begin a significant ground invasion of the Gaza Strip.

According to the reports, senior defense officials were to propose that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert seek out the temporary truce, based on an initiative originally proposed by French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner. "

 

[volcanik]

Quote from riskfreetrading:

Oil price is down, and also breaking news from Israel confirming RFT's prediction of war's end scenario.

do you normally refer to yourself in the third person?

 

[swtrader]

Quote from volcanik:

do you normally refer to yourself in the third person?

Bob Dole said the Bob Dole thinks it's weird that anyone else would do that

 

[riskfreetrading]

RFT reads what is in people's heads (maybe before they even know it). How he does it? Always focus on what people do, and not on what they tell you they will do or write they will do. What they do is the truth, what they tell/write is opposite most of the time. Know what is in their interests, and you will know what they will do. To illustrate the concept, take the example of rats: a hungry rat will always eat a left out cheese.

PS: A man by the name of " Al Ways Bagholder" chooses a screen name of "Stupid W. Trader". "" Al Ways Bagholder" is a good human being. "Stupid W. Trader" is not living being. How could the two be the same?