Shorting NG by Large Specs

[MP Trader NYC]

The attached chart shows short large specs and bullish commercials and small specs.

I don't quite know what to make of this.
Can anyone offer some insight?

 

[mizhael]

Quote from MP Trader NYC:

The attached chart shows short large specs and bullish commercials and small specs.

I don't quite know what to make of this.
Can anyone offer some insight?

Correct me if I am wrong - I had an impression that these are not leading indicators of the price movement ... and therefore they are of no use to trading...

 

[bobbymak880]

I thought that they were leading indicators when they reached extremes.

Or am I mistaken?

 

[mizhael]

Quote from bobbymak880:

I thought that they were leading indicators when they reached extremes.

Or am I mistaken?

Do you have an example?

 

[Joman]

Do you have an example? [/QUOTE]

Look at the COT in EUR/USD last June when it was around 1.19.

When the market is one-way reversals can be quite strong.

 

[mizhael]

Quote from Joman:

Do you have an example?

Look at the COT in EUR/USD last June when it was around 1.19.

When the market is one-way reversals can be quite strong. [/QUOTE]

Do I look at specs or commercials for this case?

 

[Joman]

Do I look at specs or commercials for this case?

Ignore small spec (retail traders) and commercials (used for hedging).

You want to know how the large spec are positioned.

You can have a look at this article:

http://www.babypips.com/school/the-cot-trading-strategy.html

 

[nazzdack]

Quote from Joman:
----small spec (retail traders)....
----how the large spec are positioned.

Aren't small specs AND large specs both perceived as being "the public"?

 

[Joman]

Quote from nazzdack:

Aren't small specs AND large specs both perceived as being "the public"?

I don't know what "the public" is, I've never seen such a category in a COT report.

However, I guess it would rather be small specs / retail traders. I'd be surprised that a large hedge fund is considered as "the public".