Quote from piezoe:
And here is another little suggestion that you may find helpful. Don't short based on your prediction alone. For example, interest rates are rising, home builders are high as a kite. You predict the homebuilder stocks should fall. DO NOT SHORT. Monitor the stocks closely and wait until they show you that they are falling before shorting. When you short you want the momentum already formed to the downside. Don't worry about trying to short at the very top. You can never do it anyway, well maybe once in a lifetime. But on the other hand don't wait until the move is over. Get in there, grab the dough and keep grabbing until you get a signal that the down momentum is fading. You can always re-enter the position if the momentum picks up again. Never ever short just because you think the price is too high.
I generally agree. However, there is a problem with this approach. If you are good at the fundamentals, but crap at market feel, you will never make money this way. Also, it's quite possible you will get faked out or "tricked" by the market action, and not make much profit because you are paying too much attention to price movements.
If you are absolutely, flat-out sure that a sector is going to crash (caveat - you must be *proven* to be good at fundie analysis i.e. your predictions generally have worked in the past), ultimately the only sure-fire way to profit is to put on a position, and HOLD it come what may. Since you can't do that with shorts (because it could double and wipe you out), the only "fundamental trader" approach is to average into deep out the money long-dated put options. Just keep buying deep OTM puts every few months, drip-feed your capital into them and, if you turn out to be correct, you are absolutely guaranteed to make a nice profit. Unlike almost every other trading approach, there is literally NO WAY that you cannot make money if you are right.
What typically happens when I do this, is that i lose money for months and sometimes 1-2 years, but then make it all back and much more when the crash finally occurs. Believe me, there are few things more profitable than rolling put ladders in a secular bear market.