Shorting EBAY -- big winner

A

Allspread

Their core business is going completely down the drain -- auctioning off specialty items and rare/unusual collectibles in favor of trying to be the new AMZN.

New management doesn't have what it takes to be heavy hitters in the retail market. EBAY has a severe identity crisis -- buyers who get items from online retailers think "auction" and won't go there. Auction sellers are being run off from the site by EBAY mgmt by design (jimmying the feedback system, raising seller fees, there is a whole list of ways they are trying to run off the people they derive their revenue from).

Go read the eBay Community boards on their site, there are THOUSANDS of extremely angry people who don't appear to be letting up for a second...
 
EBay shares fall to 2-year low as 3rd-qtr forecast disappoints analysts

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of eBay Inc. fell to their lowest point in nearly two years Thursday after the online auction company's second-quarter profit growth was eclipsed by a softer forecast than analysts had expected.

EBay shares fell $3.90, or 13.9 percent, to $24.20 Thursday, after earlier trading as low as $23.52, its lowest point since August 2006.

EBay said late Wednesday its second-quarter earnings climbed 22 percent, helped by growth in the company's e-commerce sites and its PayPal payments service.

But the company's third-quarter guidance disappointed analysts. EBay expects 39 cents to 41 cents per share in adjusted earnings and $2.10 billion to $2.15 billion in revenue. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, expect adjusted earnings of 41 cents per share on $2.18 billion in revenue.

Analysts were also concerned by the company's growth in gross merchandise volume, which refers to the total amount of money that flows from transactions on the site. EBay reported 8 percent gross merchandise volume growth, compared with 12 percent in the year-ago quarter.[\B]
More...


5 weeks later ... this is free money, folks. eBay's customers are the sellers that made the site successful and they are LEAVING -- PERMANENTLY.

I see them losing 50% of their market cap in the next 12 months. Conviction sell now.
 
eBay suffered because cost of shipping is high and consumer spending is low. Their international sales did better because dollar is low and inspite of higher shipping the exchange rate with euro makes buying an item cheaper.

The shipping will hurt amazon as well.

The forecast was light and that is the reason for sell off. You can't do a soft forecast in this climate.
 
Quote from Allspread:

5 weeks later ... this is free money, folks. eBay's customers are the sellers that made the site successful and they are LEAVING -- PERMANENTLY.

I see them losing 50% of their market cap in the next 12 months. Conviction sell now.
More...
And where exactly are the sellers going?
 
Quote from Allspread:

Their core business is going completely down the drain -- auctioning off specialty items and rare/unusual collectibles in favor of trying to be the new AMZN.

New management doesn't have what it takes to be heavy hitters in the retail market. EBAY has a severe identity crisis -- buyers who get items from online retailers think "auction" and won't go there. Auction sellers are being run off from the site by EBAY mgmt by design (jimmying the feedback system, raising seller fees, there is a whole list of ways they are trying to run off the people they derive their revenue from).

Go read the eBay Community boards on their site, there are THOUSANDS of extremely angry people who don't appear to be letting up for a second...
More...

You know, that's been my thoughts on Ebay for some time now. I have to agree with you that they are ruining there core business. The very ideas that made them such a success. And really there are several other auction sites that will welcome the traditional Ebay sellers with open arms. Bad Ebay management I would say.
 
ebay was the ultimate flea market... they werent satisfied with a successful formula and wanted to change/upgrade their image and business.
They are not amazon and never will be.
Amazon is for new stuff and ebay is for used.Why ebay wants to change that is bizarre.Anyway many sellers have stopped selling altogether,have gone to amazon auctions,use craigslist or started their own websites.

I used to like to to buy and sell stuff and then they started all these dumb rules and it got swamped with bogus bidders.It turned me off and i lost all interest.
They have got to be the worst managed company.Talk about killing the golden goose.
 
Posted this originally June 10.

Stock price is down 35% since July 9, now trading at a more than 5 year low.

Buh-bye, EBAY.

Sorry I didn't make any more money off your website (and you off of me ... it *was* a symbiotic relationship) but I sure cleaned house shorting your worthless stock.

Next time, listen to your customers.
 
yesterday

October 2, 2008, 9:40 am
eBay Shrs Extend Slide On Morgan Stanley Downgrade

There’s new selling pressure on eBay (EBAY) this morning, after Morgan Stanley’s David Joseph cut his rating on the stock to Equal Weight from Overweight.

“Seller checks and proprietary data indicate that trends deteriorated more than expected in Q3 amid eBay’s ongoing transition in its core marketplace, greater economic sensitivity and poor demand,” he writes in a research note today. Joseph writes that he now expects greater deceleration in global gross merchandise volume in Q3 than previously expected, with a possible year-over-year decline in the U.S. And he also cautions that eBay faces a “challenging holiday season.”

Jospeh also notes that the company’s current issues are likely to linger: he cut estimates not only for Q3 and Q4, but also for 2009. “We have less conviction in eBay’s strategy to transform its core marketplace from an auction-based ‘thrift’ to a transaction-oriented platform that better addresses fixed-price in-season retail,” he writes. Jospeh says he had been thinking that the end of the company’s 3-plus year turnaround would come soon, but that “recent trends are telling us otherwise.”

Joseph cut his Q3 EPS estimate to 40 cents from 42 cents. For Q4, he goes to 48 cents, from 50 cents. And for 2009, he goes to $1.91, from $2.04.
...

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtrader...hrs-extend-slide-on-morgan-stanley-downgrade/
 
I hate ebay. I made a thread awhile back on how ebay was a good short also. I wouldnt be surprised to see fleabay at $10 either. The company is useless, run by incompetent idiots. They are implementing fees shortly that will make sellers flee in drones, and making paypal the only way to pay. EBAY could become a penny stock if the market would value it properly. Eventually the market is always right.
 
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