Shortie's Pseudo-scientific Method Predicts SPY 104 as The Bottom

How Far is the Bottom?

  • Within ~2%

    Votes: 6 17.6%

  • 6-8% to go

    Votes: 4 11.8%

  • >10% to go

    Votes: 8 23.5%

  • >15% to go

    Votes: 2 5.9%

  • >20% to go

    Votes: 14 41.2%
  • Total voters
    34
Quote from shortie:

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Fame and popularity can be so fleeting wouldn't you agree.



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The market is technically broken. The chart (s) now point to 950 (or lower). 1057/1066 is a stop on the way lower.

I am glad I am a trader. Lots of people are going to be talking about how traders are killing the markets. Kinda like the mouthpieces that say look at this all the while their other hand is buying or selling. Confidence is absolutely broken.

200d ma on New Highs approaching 15. What that means is it is going to take time for this beast to climb out. The money is just disappearing from equities and no one trusts that they are coming back soon. We'll have fits and starts but I do not see a yearend rally anymore. Perhaps a gasp up that gets sold but say goodbye to 1350-1500 for many years. Double dip lows of 700-1000.

I hope I'm wrong but.........
 
Loja is correct that this mkt is broken. There is a huge overhang of supply. We will not see 1400 SPX for at least two years.
 
Quote from Lojanica:

The market is technically broken. The chart (s) now point to 950 (or lower). 1057/1066 is a stop on the way lower.

I am glad I am a trader. Lots of people are going to be talking about how traders are killing the markets. Kinda like the mouthpieces that say look at this all the while their other hand is buying or selling. Confidence is absolutely broken.

200d ma on New Highs approaching 15. What that means is it is going to take time for this beast to climb out. The money is just disappearing from equities and no one trusts that they are coming back soon. We'll have fits and starts but I do not see a yearend rally anymore. Perhaps a gasp up that gets sold but say goodbye to 1350-1500 for many years. Double dip lows of 700-1000.

I hope I'm wrong but.........
More...


Thinking fundamentally what are the reasons to sell stocks?
cash is devalued by the day
gold is expensive
it's really really stupid to buy government bonds for longer term than a week
corporate bonds a little better but still not really attractive
yes stocks lose a lot right now but at least you get real assets with real cashflow
700 S&P with current liquidity levels? companies still pay 50-60% for acquisitions. If you have something remotely close to 700 at least half of russell 2000 companies will be bought, maybe 20% of S&P will go the same way

It might go to 800-900 in case of very sharp crash if it happens in 2-3 weeks. in that case it will be deal of a lifetime

corporations have 1 trillion in cash. just try to pretend what will happen if this cash is deployed. and shareholders will force companies to deploy this cash in case of market crash
long term corporate acquisitions and buybacks will shrink stock market to prevent those numbers to happen
 
Quote from atticus:

Loja is correct that this mkt is broken. There is a huge overhang of supply. We will not see 1400 SPX for at least two years.
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I'm a little upset, all the foolish money managers and economists on wallstreet were predicting a closing on SPX of 1350+


They promised that the SPX would close north of 1300.

HAHAHA

Looks like everyone will be holding onto losses for a really, really, really long time, I think the SPX breaks 1000. Then those 1400 predictions will look like they wont happen for more than 5+ years. As I said many times over you will be able to buy the SPX under 1000 again and again for the next 10+ years!
 
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