Shorted OIL

Quote from WallStWiz78:

What a moron shorting oil, especially during the summer months when demand is high. Haven't you guys noticed that oil prices go up faster and slower to come down at the pumps? Think about it... if you were the guy in charge of producing oil in the mideast, would you rather jack up prices to make more money when you know the world has no other option but to pay your high demands... or would you lower your own prices for no reason at all? There's no such thing as having enough resources... especially here in the US. Sooner or later the government will have to re-stockpile the petroleum reserves that they used up to dump into the market to maintain these levels that they're at right now? If the government didn't released reserves into the market, do you really think oil would be sitting here at just $3 a gallon during the summer months? You don't need any fancy analyst, its just pure common sense.
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thee olde seasonality argument.

oil is coming down, friend.

surf:D
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

thee olde seasonality argument.

oil is coming down, friend.

surf:D
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You seem pretty confident, surfer. Have you incorporated inflation-adjusted historical oil prices, low interest rates, capped production, steadily increasing demand, prolonged war in the middle east, terrorism, and supply disruptions in your forecast?

I have, but the arrow is not pointing down on my screen. Other than the revival of the "drive-at-55" program, or a new miracle technology - what is it that you think will bring prices down?

-segv
 
It was a weak jobs report, further increasing the chance that the Fed has stopped raising rates. So crude remains bullish but we had a lot of profit taking Friday. Driving season is almost over so a lot of people stopped buying the rumour and started selling the fact that this was the highest gasoline demand EVER! So much for hybrid cars eating into gas demand huh? :)

Now we have hurricane season upon us and whilst, no-one wants a major disaster it's not exactly wise to short this market right now.

Last week oil made a run and tried to breakout. This week it might just make it. If it breaks above $77 and then $80 I expect that there'll be about $2-$3 of further slippage before any meaningful ceiling kicks in. It's gonna be fun either way! :)
 
Quote from empee:
Hi, I shorted August Oil at 72.45 this AM, the July contracts broke 71.50. I'm looking for a big move down (meaning a change in trend) potentially testing $50/barrel over the coming months.
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On behalf of trend followers the world over, I thank you for your generosity.
 
Would a pause in interest rates in the near future stimulate the economy or would it take a decline in the interest rate to do that ? This slowdown likely began during the 4.75 and 5.00 percent area, we're now at 5.25 , possibly heading toward 5.5.
I think Merrill Lynch was saying that back in January the atmosphere was one that would cause a larger decline that is expected.
A pause may cause a temporay cheer in the stock market but I don't see how data will come in stronger as a result of a pause since the slowing was caused at a lower rate.
 
Many chartists use RSI (14). Looking back as far as 2003 it is difficult to find a time when divergence did not forecast at least a small decline in the CL contract- like rain clouds , you know its coming but not exactly when .
Shorting oil for longer time frames could be costly, you'd pretty well have to be in the industry to know when a trend as strong as this one will change.
 
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