Short US10Y yield + short USD. Long term opportunity.

[long]

95%+ of my trades are purely algorithmic, so your "mentality change" doesn't really apply on me. The threads i create here are mostly based on long term "mispricings" so there is TIME to digest and discuss.

That mentality you are referring to is probably only about "averaging down every losing trade with the hope that there will be a retracement" concept. I'm talking about a little more than that. As i said, i don't mind the yield to go higher, at 5.50% the curve is not inverted anymore. Do you understand that this is a headline again? Implications for the stock market and so on? Doubt you thought like that 4 decades ago.

You were just a contrarian trader and averaging down and yes, that mentality is hard to change.

And btw, replacing that mentality with "i'm using disciplined technical analysis and stops now" doesn't have any more alpha hidden in it than that "avg down" strategy. You'll just lose slower.

Is this one of your algorithmic trades? I get the impression that it’s purely discretionary.

 

[tsfx]

Is this one of your algorithmic trades? I get the impression that it’s purely discretionary.

No, these are long(er) term manual trades.

Algos are built on a completely different logic. I might incorporate fundamentals into some algo trades but in reality it gives me zero extra alpha.

 

[nitrene]

Shorting the DXY is a poor idea since it is simply a math formula of the Euro, Cable, Yen, Aussie dollar & the Loony. The only realistic way it will go down is if the BoJ decides to end their YCC policy and allows their rates to skyrocket which I doubt they will ever do. The EU & UK are dying economies & Australia/Canada are simply commodity currencies.

At this point the DXY is simply a measure of the coming global recession/depression. I agree that rates on the 10+ yr bonds will keep going higher, however at some point the US will likely bring back Operation Twist to artificially reduce rates like they did in post WWII and during the later days of Bernanke's Fed reign.

 

[tsfx]

Shorting the DXY is a poor idea since it is simply a math formula of the Euro, Cable, Yen, Aussie dollar & the Loony.

What does it mean, USD is a math formula of other ccy's?

The only realistic way it will go down is if the BoJ decides to end their YCC policy and allows their rates to skyrocket which I doubt they will ever do. The EU & UK are dying economies & Australia/Canada are simply commodity currencies.

that's not at all the only realistic way. USD will make a long term top fairly soon (top might already be in place), it's the rates structure break that will cause the weakness. It just takes time.

At this point the DXY is simply a measure of the coming global recession/depression. I agree that rates on the 10+ yr bonds will keep going higher, however at some point the US will likely bring back Operation Twist to artificially reduce rates like they did in post WWII and during the later days of Bernanke's Fed reign.

It's interesting how people still talk about booms or recessions as if they are the result of some free economic behaviour. We live in a money printing environment. CB's DECIDE whether there is going to be a boom or a recession not the market.

We had the worst pandemic with global shut downs and the result was one of the best stock market performance (time weighted) ever. Let that sink in.

 

[tsfx]

And close.