"SHORT THIS!" - Update

B

brettman9

I don't know if anyone cares or followed me into this play from my earlier thread, or is interested...but I'll post my thoughts on it here:

I am taking off the extra leverage I added ( got that bounce to 1275...ES M8 - june emini S&P's), as per my post in the earlier thread...plus about 25% off the original play as we go into test 1255, which was the overnight limit low on the 1/22 crash.

so now down to 75% of original short position from the entry on the break beneath 1300.

My stops on the remaining piece will be soft and scaling and well above the market here. I will still sooner add more short on a bounce. Plan to let this ride out for what it looks to be.

As I said in my "dangerous thinking" post, the bounce players will keep recycling and washing out...the fed will do nothing. and the larger players know it. If the market can prove me wrong, that's ok. But I don't see it getting any help this time...at least, not before limit down just beneath 1225.

"Short This!" post
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=121387

"dangerous thinking" post
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=121406
 
Adding back to full short exposure in here around 1265

will add more on further bounce to 1270 stll staying very wide 1300+ in terms of stops
 
curious, what is your target for:

a - monday's close

b - thursday's close

c - april expiration



Anyone feel free to chime in. My thoughts:


a - monday's close - 1260

b - thursday's close - 1240 (expecting more downside from financial earnings this week)

c - april expiration - 1225 (A bit more fall from where we will be end of this week, but I don't see a catalyst to take it much further down from where it will be thursday)


I'm not super-experienced at all though, interested in your thoughts.
 
Hi Shortorlong,


qualitative speculations are better than quantitative ones in a market like this, where liquidity and stability are actually being questioned.

My downside estimate is: true capitulation selling, that sets or nears a new all-time record high put/call ratio.
 
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