Short the Euro/USD Now!

[downrivertrader]

Realist,

Good luck with your trade. I think we need to move down but who knows.

If we can build value below 1.4049 area, then I think we may ultimately move down to the 1.3563 area. There is a lot of wood to chop on the way though. On the other side of the coin is the longer term distribution which shows an ultimate target of around 1.55 on spot. If we move above 1.43 and build value, then the range may extend upwards.

On a macro level, I have the key level around 1.4167 going into next week. We need to hold below here to get things moving down.

 

[Realist]

Quote from downrivertrader:

Realist,

Good luck with your trade. I think we need to move down but who knows.

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I have traded EuroFX on CME for quite sometime now. My hit rate is very favorable as I keep the trade entries very simple. A combination of RSI and MACD is all that I use actually. I was recently long from 1.3622 on 9/3 and have just reversed to short on 10/5. I have carried a long/short position in the Euro since 11/06 and most of the time I pull between 50 and 400 ticks per trade.. The current position has a downside target of over 400 pips on EUR/USD cash. Its technically possible that 1.3525 could also be reached as well although I don't expect to see it get this low...

 

[downrivertrader]

Simple is good. What are your entry and exit criteria for this methodology? I am assuming you have a generous risk limit to trade this way.

 

[downrivertrader]

Here's a trade I am watching for today's NA session.

Price is currently at 1.4090.

If price moves down to 1.4086, then set longs and target 1.4180.

You can also use 4136 as a target to take off 1/2 or 2/3.

 

[Realist]

Quote from downrivertrader:

Simple is good. What are your entry and exit criteria for this methodology? I am assuming you have a generous risk limit to trade this way.

I always have stops in place. Normally I place them at or near the swing high/low in case the trend moves against me. I was stopped twice in the last 9 months. One of the stops actually allowed me to renter on the long side with about 60 extra pips on the re-entry...

 

[downrivertrader]

Thanks. Sounds like you are doing very well for yourself.

 

[Realist]

Yesterdays strength in the $XEU appears to be reversing today. The charts are printing the usual secondary high test and perhaps the DX will begin to continue moving higher from here in the near term. Sold more ECZ7 today as a result of this development...

 

[downrivertrader]

I think we will bounce hard off the 4175 River level. If we move and settle below. Down she goes.

 

[Realist]

Target remains 1.3650 on cash Euro. Close to 500 pips on the downside coming imo...

 

[downrivertrader]

We did trade up to the 4245/50 area. I am out of my longs. This area up to 4285 is much more likely to give us the move down. Watch for the daily high to be tested in tonights Asian session, likely a head fake up then down the rest of the week. But who knows. Trade em like you see em. I am looking to set up short in the current value area

Quote from downrivertrader:

I think we will bounce hard off the 4175 River level. If we move and settle below. Down she goes.