Short the ES with impunity 08/02/2006

Quote from Mike805:

polpolik,

I'm with you man, got a quick long this morning and then started scaling into an ES short today, avg price 1285 on 12 contracts so far. My stop is tighter, 1293, but 1290 is where I currently see the make it or break it point being at.

This week will definetly tell the story for the coming month - the volume feels undecided, today's double top was slightly awkward given the recent run, AND, we are at the top of a sell side value area.

I have been known to change my opinions on a dime before, however, I do believe the odds are starting to dramatically weigh in favor of some major downside.

Mike
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Weak rally this week favors shorts, summer rally tends to be weak also;
however 1st day/week of month tends to be bullish.

In favor of polar bears;
august 1st was down. See what direction trades this week.
Prefer candlechart daytrade[not scalp usually,] with ES.:cool:
 
Though I am short here also, I do not believe this week we will see ES declining, if anything I see it breaking today's High and making a run towards 1300 mark. If you are playing a swing game here on the short side I would look into widening stops and/or re-shuffling position size.
 
Quote from ksonsinc:

u have putting a very close stop loss 1301
i say short also 1284 but the 1282 look,s preety strong unless we have some major major selling coming in
it could re test 1288
let see what happens:D
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are you from Eastern Asia my man? Love your accent!
 
Quote from romik:

Though I am short here also, I do not believe this week we will see ES declining, if anything I see it breaking today's High and making a run towards 1300 mark. If you are playing a swing game here on the short side I would look into widening stops and/or re-shuffling position size.
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FYI, my stop is the worst case out for me - I usually pre-emptively stop out when the position doesn't show signs of movement in my direction right from the start. I usually try not to lose more than 3-5 ES points on any trade. Sometimes I wash, some times I take the max stop loss - a lot of times it's somewhere in the middle.
 
Quote from Mike805:

FYI, my stop is the worst case out for me - I usually pre-emptively stop out when the position doesn't show signs of movement in my direction right from the start. I usually try not to lose more than 3-5 ES points on any trade. Sometimes I wash, some times I take the max stop loss - a lot of times it's somewhere in the middle.
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that's cool, but you might be sitting on a winner here and all you have to do is reduce initial position size, by doing so you are widening your stop level and opening up to adding if your timing is off, no one is perfect. Just a thought.
 
yes, also note the VIX stair-stepping up: The last step (resistance) at about 13 and now holding around the 14 level.
There are also opportunities in long puts on the less expensive SP-500 components such as the very toppy JPM & others. Some Jan 07 high Vega puts can be considered straight plays or hedges against upside picks; it's almost a can't lose situation and at least a good expectancy entry point.
Cheers and happy trading.
 
Agree on the short bias in ES, however, the market may not sell off until Friday 8/4 or later......mutual fund mgrs typically have 3 days at the beg. of each month to allocate their cash. Mutual fundies buying and the hedgies short covering is what this recent rally is based on, IMHO.

I only daytrade ES and may scalp a long or two, but MP is giving me bias for a bigger move down within the next week......but I can turn on a dime too. Flexibility rules the day.
 
Quote from romik:

that's cool, but you might be sitting on a winner here and all you have to do is reduce initial position size, by doing so you are widening your stop level and opening up to adding if your timing is off, no one is perfect. Just a thought.
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Yes, thats one way of getting to the end goal.

My strategy is more timing orientated in that I get stopped out very small and often. Once I get the trade working correctly, I really pile in. I never let losers go very far period. If the trade isn't working, I kill it, no matter what.

I would have no problems killing this trade in the coming day or two and re-entering at the 1300 level.
 
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