Yep, I like the risk/reward, so I'm with you...
Short the dollar hard
- Thread starter RiceRocket
- Start date
I'm glad someone is, I was getting lonely
I guess if it all goes wrong at least we can commiserate with each other!
theres a reason why its the only thing that pays interest.. 
difficult to call currencies to start with. my position is in AUD+CAD (against my natural mix of EUR+USD) but I entered some times ago - I am not sure it is such a screaming buy right now.
a lot of misconceptions above, e.g.:
1. EUR is considered weaker than USD by most. to go long USD against EUR is certainly not contrarian anymore.
2. people suggesting EUR is worse of often only babble - like on this thread. for instance these trillions in loans to eastern europe is red herring. first, the numbers are misleading, e.g. they include participation interests in banks (which are currently one of few banks in the world that generate real profit...)
second the problematic countries are outside EUR and if bailed out they are going to be bailed out via IMF (remember the recent G20 meeting?).
3. bank heavy countries like CHF and GBP are obviously not in EURo...
4. PIGS were ALWAYS pigs and the recession can only help them to restructure their economies (the same goes with US economy).
p.s. i saw ricerocket to make some impressive calls if i remember well...and i think he knows what he's talking about (to what extent i don't know)
a lot of misconceptions above, e.g.:
1. EUR is considered weaker than USD by most. to go long USD against EUR is certainly not contrarian anymore.
2. people suggesting EUR is worse of often only babble - like on this thread. for instance these trillions in loans to eastern europe is red herring. first, the numbers are misleading, e.g. they include participation interests in banks (which are currently one of few banks in the world that generate real profit...)
second the problematic countries are outside EUR and if bailed out they are going to be bailed out via IMF (remember the recent G20 meeting?).
3. bank heavy countries like CHF and GBP are obviously not in EURo...
4. PIGS were ALWAYS pigs and the recession can only help them to restructure their economies (the same goes with US economy).
p.s. i saw ricerocket to make some impressive calls if i remember well...and i think he knows what he's talking about (to what extent i don't know)
Got a link for this? Because this sounds an awful lot far-fetched.
April 2009 edition of Futures Magazine... read up.
It sounds far-fetched because folks can't believe that the EUR could be in worse shape than the USD. It simply doesn't fit the normal blame game (in which the US is usually to blame for all the world's voes).
Also, look at what happened to the YEN in 2008. Japan is fundamentally in probably worse state than the US, yet it was seen as a safe-haven. FUNDAMENTALS DO NOT RULE THIS MARKET, CBs DO. Get this into your head!
The EUR and other majors have been in a bubble against the USD and YEN. The weekly technicals back me up on this. PERIOD.
There are some threads here about this... The $4.7trn figure is quite an exaggeration due to a variety of technical details.
I must be missing something because I thought CB's base their policies on fundamentals, supposedly in the best interest of their respective economies.
The short of it is you cannot have one central bank and one monetary policy that serves a multitude of economically diverse situations backed by a nationalist ideology.
It's just not going to work. Oh, you'll get by for some time, but in the end, nope.
I, too, will take the other side of the dollar sell.
It's just not going to work. Oh, you'll get by for some time, but in the end, nope.
I, too, will take the other side of the dollar sell.
Fr you guys that are dollar bears and looking at the increases in fed deficit as inflationary, you must read this. I just read it and it will explain some misconception.
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blo...ly-review-and-outlook-first-quarter-2009.aspx
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blo...ly-review-and-outlook-first-quarter-2009.aspx