Short-term Cycle Top for AUD/USD

[FDate_Trader]

Following the cycle pattern of AUD, it appears that this market is due to top Sept 10.

Watching prices rise this evening (of Sept 9 in U.S.), AD is coming really close to time/price resistance that stands around .9300.

Whether it gets there or not (or higher), I cannot see the top going beyond Sept 11 at the latest.

On the downside, once the decline starts, there is a cycle bottom due around the Sept. 20 area. So that would be one target point.

Overall, for the longer-term, I'm bullish AD going into November 2013 as part of the bear-trend correction. But as with any trend, you have your swing up and your swing down, and this short-term outlook is for yet another swing down.

 

[FDate_Trader]

I'm replying to my original post as a matter of update and recap.

Yesterday marked the official day for a cycle swing top in the AUD.

Today, prices have managed to rise a few additional pips, moving closer to pre-calculated resistance. However, whether it actually hits the next resistance level or not is not important.

What IS important is today marks ONE DAY removed from the pre-calculated cycle turn date. This is the maximum deviation from a calculate point in time that is acceptable.

Therefore the probability rating is VERY HIGH that AUD will not put in a higher-high after today beyond today's high UNTIL prices have retreated downward (correct) first.

In the terms of trading and risk management, that means shorting AUD today has a high probability of producing profit and that once today's trading has closed (going into the next session period), the high it makes today marks an excellent initial stop-loss reference price level (always give a few pips above just for those random spikes that occur once in awhile).