Short put is deep ITM. Advice!

BlueWaterSailor said:
Oh, say 500% YTD - assuming he picked the right underlyings and direction. Zero adjusting - if you tried to actually read what I wrote, I've mentioned that a number of times - and losses proportional to all the relevant factors.
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That's meaningless in the real world. You're not actually trading so you can give a realistic YTD figure based on your average year-end results?

And I know the meaning of sting and lessons. The wheel is what brought me back. In 2021 I ended up 21.7% from wheeling and I had some losers I dumped.
 
lightninboy said:
That's meaningless in the real world. You're not actually trading so you can give a realistic YTD figure based on your average year-end results?
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Dude, what kind of drugs are you on?

You spouted some nonsense about wheeling somehow being "safe" and spreads making you "terrified". I told you that that's not how it works, which is on par with having to tell someone that water is wet (and in your case, having to explain it in detail, with examples drawn in crayon and big hand gestures - which also didn't help.) Then you posted your accidental P&L and boasted about it - and asked me to project what some imaginary spread trader "should have made" (how the hell would anybody know?)

And now, I'm supposed to have become this random "spread trader" who is supposed to compare my P&L to yours? And if I don't, then I'm "not actually trading"?

This isn't like talking to a brick wall... it's more like pissing on one, splashback and all. You clearly couldn't make sense if you tried, because the part of your brain that's supposed to tell the difference between reality and raving batshit craziness is seriously broken.

I usually don't block people unless they're intentional assholes, but I'm going to make an exception in your case; intentional cluelessness is just as much of a waste of time. Go bother someone else.
 
If I can enter a bear put spread with a 16 put for $.15 and a 18 put for $.19, is that a good deal? It looks bulletproof to me, but I'm terrified.
 
lightninboy said:
SAVA was $37.64. It closed today at $51.06.
I have saved Excel spread calculators, but I don't use spreads.
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Then it was a losing trade b/c of wrong direction the underlying took.
Ie. a Bull Put Spread instead of Bear Put Spread would have been better.
But of course one never can know with 100% certainty the direction of the underlying in advance.
 
I think one can learn much from this trade.
Since for this BearPutSpread trade the win for the bearish side was so big and the loss for the bullish side so small,
ie. kind of unreal (kind of "too good to be true"), then this was an indication that the direction was known in advance!
Ie. few people have believed the stock will fall, instead the majority was thinking it will strongly rise.
And accordingly were the option premiums, incl. the premiums of this trade. And then it indeed happened as expected by the market!
That was a typical biotech company awaiting an external decision like FDA approval etc.
The stock yesterday rose 36% b/c of this good news for the company:
"Cassava Rockets After SEC Reportedly Clears It Of Tampering With Alzheimer's Data"
 
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lightninboy said:
SAVA was $37.64. It closed today at $51.06.
I have saved Excel spread calculators, but I don't use spreads.
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What do you mean by this? Your said trade was a 2-leg Put spread, ie. Bear Put Spread.

Here's my calcs & analysis of it. I just used DTE=30 since that information you did not provide;
but it's irrelevant in this case since the Premiums are known,
and this my calc & analysis is about the outcome at the expiration only, not for the time before.
This result is when using a cash account where each leg is treated for itself (ie. no real recognition of a true spread trade).
The result for a margin account is better than for a cash acct. Still, I'm specialising on cash acct only.
Code: 
SP(S=37.6400 DTE=30.00 K=16.00 Pr=0.1500 IV=163.3200)
LP(S=37.6400 DTE=30.00 K=18.00 Pr=0.1900 IV=149.4379 LP_IV_at_SP_expiry=149.4379 --> Pr_at_SP_expiry=0.0000 Used_Pr=0.1900 Pr_for_SP_DTE=0.1900 Saved_LP_Pr=0.0000(0.00%))
S_at_end=51.0600 :
  SM=0 CashAcct/4 PutVerticalBearSpread NetPr=-0.0400(Debit) CashReq=0.0400 CBraw=16.0400 CB=16.0400 NetAssReq=15.8500 MaxPL=1.9600(12.22% @Sx<=SP.K(16.00)) MinPL=-0.0400(-0.25% @Sx>=LP.K(18.00)) WLrat=49.00 LWrat=0.02 WIrat=8.18 LIrat=-401.00 BE(S=17.9600(-52.28%)) S0(PL=-0.0400(-0.25% Mon=-0.25% Ann=-2.99%) Irat=-401.00) SL_Score=-8.83
  0.0000(-100.00): PL=1.9600(12.22)
  3.7640(-90.00): PL=1.9600(12.22)
  7.5280(-80.00): PL=1.9600(12.22)
  9.4100(-75.00): PL=1.9600(12.22)
  11.2920(-70.00): PL=1.9600(12.22)
  15.0560(-60.00): PL=1.9600(12.22)
  16.0000(-57.49): PL=1.9600(12.22)
  16.4000(-56.43): PL=1.5600(9.73)
  16.8000(-55.37): PL=1.1600(7.23)
  17.2000(-54.30): PL=0.7600(4.74)
  17.6000(-53.24): PL=0.3600(2.24)
  17.9600(-52.28): PL=-0.0000(0.00)
  18.0000(-52.18): PL=-0.0400(-0.25)
  18.8200(-50.00): PL=-0.0400(-0.25)
  22.5840(-40.00): PL=-0.0400(-0.25)
  26.3480(-30.00): PL=-0.0400(-0.25)
  28.2300(-25.00): PL=-0.0400(-0.25)
  30.1120(-20.00): PL=-0.0400(-0.25)
  33.8760(-10.00): PL=-0.0400(-0.25)
  37.6400(0.00): PL=-0.0400(-0.25) 
  41.4040(10.00): PL=-0.0400(-0.25)
  45.1680(20.00): PL=-0.0400(-0.25)
  47.0500(25.00): PL=-0.0400(-0.25)
  48.9320(30.00): PL=-0.0400(-0.25)
  51.0600(35.65): PL=-0.0400(-0.25)
  52.6960(40.00): PL=-0.0400(-0.25)
  56.4600(50.00): PL=-0.0400(-0.25)
  60.2240(60.00): PL=-0.0400(-0.25)
  63.9880(70.00): PL=-0.0400(-0.25)
  65.8700(75.00): PL=-0.0400(-0.25)
  67.7520(80.00): PL=-0.0400(-0.25)
  71.5160(90.00): PL=-0.0400(-0.25)
  75.2800(100.00): PL=-0.0400(-0.25)
 
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