Short Opportunity of A Lifetime AZO Auto Zone

Totally agree. The former exec is Edward S. Lampert.

http://tradealarm.blogspot.com

Quote from Anaconda:

You should learn how to do research.

1) AZO does have competitors, a simple use of Yahoo Finance will lead you to:http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=AZO

2) Profit margins from auto parts retailers do not come basic parts but from more luxury items, like rims & trinkets. Profit margins will contract.

3) Their balance sheet sucks and they are sitting on a lot of inventory that is obviously not moving.

4) The ONLY thing that they have been doing which is stock price positive is buy back a lot of shares on a consistent basis

5) The stock is manipulated via RBS where one of their former execs went.
:) :)
 
Quote from Anaconda:

You should learn how to do research.

1) AZO does have competitors, a simple use of Yahoo Finance will lead you to:http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=AZO

2) Profit margins from auto parts retailers do not come basic parts but from more luxury items, like rims & trinkets. Profit margins will contract.

3) Their balance sheet sucks and they are sitting on a lot of inventory that is obviously not moving.

4) The ONLY thing that they have been doing which is stock price positive is buy back a lot of shares on a consistent basis

5) The stock is manipulated via RBS where one of their former execs went.

When you control 15 short funds and they tell you they wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole then you can make statements like 1 broker controling the float. YOU SHOULD DO YOUR RESEARCH AND BY THE WAY I AM IN THE AUTOMOTIVE BUSINESS AND ITS DOING BETTER THAN EVER FOR SMALL ITEMS LIKE OIL AND BRAKES WHICH ARE LOW TICKET HIGH PROFIT MARGIN ITEMS.

WE ARE IN A RECESSION.. BEFORE YOU SPEAK DO YOUR DUE DILIGENCE ITS LIKE TELLING A SURGEON HOW TO TO AN INCISION.

FOR EXAMPLE THE INVENTORY THEY SIT ON IS FOR CARS THAT NEED THEM EVENTUALLY. TRY TO GET A PART FOR AN 88 saab AND SEE HOW FAR YOU GET. AS THE PARTS GET SCARCE IT GOES BACK TO SUPPLY AND DEMAND ECONOMICS WHICH YOU HAVE NO UNDERSTANDING OF. CHECK MY SHORTS AND CHECK YOUR SHORTS AND LETS SEE WHO WAS ON THE MONEY...

AND LIKE ANYTHING ELSE I COULD BE WRONG... BUT THATS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN US.. i ADMIT THAT NOTHING IS CERTAIN AND EVERYTHING IS POSSIBLE.... SEE YOU AT THE TOP.

bTW IF SOMEONE CONTROLS THE FLOAT AND YOU TRY TO SHORT IT ALL THEY HAVE TO DO IS SQUEEZE YOU....:cool:
 
Quote from myoffices:

When you control 15 short funds and they tell you they wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole then you can make statements like 1 broker controling the float. YOU SHOULD DO YOUR RESEARCH AND BY THE WAY I AM IN THE AUTOMOTIVE BUSINESS AND ITS DOING BETTER THAN EVER FOR SMALL ITEMS LIKE OIL AND BRAKES WHICH ARE LOW TICKET HIGH PROFIT MARGIN ITEMS.

WE ARE IN A RECESSION.. BEFORE YOU SPEAK DO YOUR DUE DILIGENCE ITS LIKE TELLING A SURGEON HOW TO TO AN INCISION.

FOR EXAMPLE THE INVENTORY THEY SIT ON IS FOR CARS THAT NEED THEM EVENTUALLY. TRY TO GET A PART FOR AN 88 saab AND SEE HOW FAR YOU GET. AS THE PARTS GET SCARCE IT GOES BACK TO SUPPLY AND DEMAND ECONOMICS WHICH YOU HAVE NO UNDERSTANDING OF. CHECK MY SHORTS AND CHECK YOUR SHORTS AND LETS SEE WHO WAS ON THE MONEY...

AND LIKE ANYTHING ELSE I COULD BE WRONG... BUT THATS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN US.. i ADMIT THAT NOTHING IS CERTAIN AND EVERYTHING IS POSSIBLE.... SEE YOU AT THE TOP.

bTW IF SOMEONE CONTROLS THE FLOAT AND YOU TRY TO SHORT IT ALL THEY HAVE TO DO IS SQUEEZE YOU....:cool:

The fact that you put the CAPS LOCK on made your post that much more important. Are the 15 short funds you speak of consist of negative balance bank accounts you have?

I could just point out where you're making little to no sense and why your opinion is flawed. But instead, I think I will congratulate you and mail you a multi-colored cap with a propeller on top.
 
Its another friday and once again another potential for black monday. But as time goes on I will be proud to wear the multicolored cap with the propeller.

I have fun being on the cutting edge. Its fun poking fun and in the end the war trophy goes to the one who sais cha-ching.

Its really hard to find a worth while short these days especially with a long term positive market potential looming.

Go to Bloomberg and then use the SI function and then come back and tell me what you see. If the signal sais SI is growing then you short , if its stable then nothing is going on.

Now lets see what your research tells you... Grandmas fund is up pretty huge and last I heard she is going after Madoffs client base...

btw- jUST DID AN ANALYSIS ON vectorvest and they have a valuation of 260+ so now what you have to say.
 
Quote from myoffices:

But as time goes on I will be proud to wear the multicolored cap with the propeller.

Must remind you of your days on the short yellow bus.
 
I think what's been said is mostly right, to the effect that AZO is sitting on a large inventory yet these are items that the demand is not necessarily dwindling for, only slightly nuanced by the current crisis. Replacement parts/engine maintenance accessories/breaks/etc are all very high profit items and the supply creates its own demand (as was stated, a reversion to basic economics). Most of these items resist depreciation fairly well, so sitting on the inventory is not that much of a capital consumption hardship. Technically speaking the stock is fairly oversold, though, and I don't see this as too lucrative a short opportunity. If you want to hit a slice of the automotive sect for a short, look at TRW...recent upgrade on their loans caused a surge which is reasonable, but it is looking tremendously overbought.
 
Another possibility is hedging with calls. Yeah they're expensive but it would give the trade breathing room.
Quote from fencerd4:

Why in the world is this piece of shit at 163? Yeah they beat earnings last quarter, but that does not explain the ridiculous share price. Maybe it is 97% owned by institutions or the asshole analyst pumping with the same old methods. They first pumped oil when it was at 150. They pumped casino when they were above 100 giving a bullshit explaination such as people gamble more in a recession. Now, they are saying that people will fix their cars more. fuck this piece of shit stock. Im so pissed at its absurd pps that I am very tempted to short it tomorrow with all my margin ($108,784).
 
Quote from dearinfinity:

I think what's been said is mostly right, to the effect that AZO is sitting on a large inventory yet these are items that the demand is not necessarily dwindling for, only slightly nuanced by the current crisis. Replacement parts/engine maintenance accessories/breaks/etc are all very high profit items and the supply creates its own demand (as was stated, a reversion to basic economics). Most of these items resist depreciation fairly well, so sitting on the inventory is not that much of a capital consumption hardship. Technically speaking the stock is fairly oversold, though, and I don't see this as too lucrative a short opportunity. If you want to hit a slice of the automotive sect for a short, look at TRW...recent upgrade on their loans caused a surge which is reasonable, but it is looking tremendously overbought.

My hat is off to you. Great analysis and well said. I was never an analyst but many of the analist would ask me my oppinion before the reports went out so I appreciate a good unbiased call.
Looking forward to hearing more on the board.:cool:
 
You have to wait until it breaks down before going short. The sign of a short squeeze capitulation is a high volume parabolic move, then you start seeing the short ratio come down as the price falls. If the short ratio increases on a pullback, it's going higher.
 
Back
Top