SHORT oil

hi,

thanks everyone for the encouragement and replies.


for those of you not following my other journal on the site that i dare not speak its name.... ...


CLOSED OIL SHORT @ 53.80

CLOSED DJIA SHORT

CLOSED EBAY SHORT


totally flat going into monday. will try to keep you appraised of my next oil entry.





:)
 
thanks rickshawman.


here is the channel( as adapted from my index system) for oil at this time:

55.03-- 52.97


flat in the middle, short below and long above.


best wishes,

:)
 
oil super spike:

Oil tops $55 a barrel level; Goldman ups price outlook By Ciara Linnane
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures climbed back above the $55 a barrel level in premarket trade Thursday, extending the prior session's late gains, after Goldman Sachs raised its oil price outlook. "We believe oil prices have entered the early stages of a superspike period," said analyst Arjun Murti, who raised his superspike range to $50-105 a barrel from $50-80. Investors are also awaiting the release of weekly natural gas supply data. The crude contract for May delivery was last trading up 2 percent at $55.09 a barrel. May natural gas was up 1.1 percent at $7.55 per million British thermal units. Enercast analysts are expecting the Energy Department to report a withdrawal of 49 billion cubic feet


it is my opinion that this is indicating a top here. however, we are still flat at this time.
 
Hank,

If settlement of petroleum sales worldwide continues to be diversified away from the de facto dollar standard, it seems like the cost of petroleum in dollars will go up. This could play itself out over the next several years.

Thoughts?
 
Quote from Aaron from March 24th:

Here's my reasons for shorting oil: Inventories are high, OPEC isn't reducing production this spring, and the SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) will be full in about 4 months (and the market will anticipate this weeks or months in advance). Gas prices are high enough to curb some demand (they've been the headline in Jay Leno's monologue for the past couple nights and lead story on the nightly news). This oil market is like Wiley E. Coyote after running off a cliff -- nothing but air underneath.

Sure, some supply disaster could happen, but each day it doesn't happen gets us closer to another Wednesday's inventory report and closer to a selloff.

Btw, you can read the weekly inventory reports here: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/wpsr.html. From last Wednesday's report here is the crude stocks graph:

<div align="center"><img src="http://www.schindlertrading.com/include/content/uploads/crude_stocks.gif" border="0" alt=""></div>

The US market (25% of world consumption) is very well supplied. From it's current $55/bbl, this market looks more likely to go to $45 than $65 in my opinion. Short the Nymex e-mini crude contract (symbol QM) and cover at $48.

As always, keep in mind that FUTURES TRADING IS SPECULATIVE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
More...

Time to take profits. I am no longer bearish on crude.
 
hank ... assuming you are short QM e mini NY crude ...

are you aware the NYMEX is changing to Clearport

from globex soon ?

make sure this change does not mess up your positions or prevent you from rolling over your short

good luck ..

:)
 
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