Short NFLX anyone ?
- Thread starter madmaxer
- Start date
i would short at 310
Why in the hell would anyone short this stock? And even better, short it based on the most obvious trading pattern known to man. Come on guys, put in some work here. Get the elbows dirty. Threads like this is what makes ET look like a Yahoo stock message board.
madmaxer,
I have indicated some reasons on the chart provided regarding the viability of this short. It is my opinion that the short is a bit risky, not that most shorts aren't. The basic theme is that the trends for the market and the stock are up. The initiation of the short isn't at a bad location as has reasonable risk control, however, is a bit premature based on lack of evidence of a development of weakness. The price got rejected and failed to keep going up and made a double top. This double top could also be looked at being simply a swing high and the continuation of a trading range. The swing low around 297 is still intact and I would have preferred for price to at least crack through it first to show more weakness.
In any case, instead of saying it's a horrible short, I have tried to post comments that might be helpful. At the end of the day, we don't know which way price is going to go. This might turn out to be a genious entry and all of us naysayers might look like fools trying to discourage another trader. The trick in my opinion isn't though to get a killing entry, rather it is to enter at the most opportune moment. I believe this entry is a bit premature albeit at a better price level.
I wish you all the best, perhaps your name is indicative of your temperament.
Gringo
I have indicated some reasons on the chart provided regarding the viability of this short. It is my opinion that the short is a bit risky, not that most shorts aren't. The basic theme is that the trends for the market and the stock are up. The initiation of the short isn't at a bad location as has reasonable risk control, however, is a bit premature based on lack of evidence of a development of weakness. The price got rejected and failed to keep going up and made a double top. This double top could also be looked at being simply a swing high and the continuation of a trading range. The swing low around 297 is still intact and I would have preferred for price to at least crack through it first to show more weakness.
In any case, instead of saying it's a horrible short, I have tried to post comments that might be helpful. At the end of the day, we don't know which way price is going to go. This might turn out to be a genious entry and all of us naysayers might look like fools trying to discourage another trader. The trick in my opinion isn't though to get a killing entry, rather it is to enter at the most opportune moment. I believe this entry is a bit premature albeit at a better price level.
I wish you all the best, perhaps your name is indicative of your temperament.
Gringo
Gringo,
Thanks a lot for your awesome response. I am happy people like you are still around. I agree, it might sound like jumping the gun to early, but thatâs how Iâve been doing it since 2002. Majority of my trades are counter trends based on the very first signs of weakness on stock when of course you think the market might go to that direction as well, and yes many stops hit, but usually the one that works pays it all off. But again thank you for your insight and I understand many traders like to see more confirmation before they can say the trend is changed. One thing I like to add to my reasoning though. I have not done an extensive research on NFLX, But I have been their customer for too long and I see their service is not keeping up the way it should be, I am almost to the point to sign up for HULU also. My kids are also complaining that their shows are not there anymore and when I ask, they said its due to the licensing agreements. Bottom line, if market does not break the high it made on the FED day last week, itâs a lower chance NFLX passes 320⦠weâll see
Now a couple of words to Mr. wall street / Pro trader
Why donât you go ahead and illuminate us on â the most obvious trading pattern known to man â
Lets see, umm.. Since 2002 and 18k post .. you are probably one of those who were laughing and humiliating others when they were buying in 2008, and calling it the best opportunity of human kind for short. And you are one those which I decided not to come here for a long time, But thank god people like Gringo are still around.
But cheer up buddy, it a small position with a tight stop â¦.
Thanks a lot for your awesome response. I am happy people like you are still around. I agree, it might sound like jumping the gun to early, but thatâs how Iâve been doing it since 2002. Majority of my trades are counter trends based on the very first signs of weakness on stock when of course you think the market might go to that direction as well, and yes many stops hit, but usually the one that works pays it all off. But again thank you for your insight and I understand many traders like to see more confirmation before they can say the trend is changed. One thing I like to add to my reasoning though. I have not done an extensive research on NFLX, But I have been their customer for too long and I see their service is not keeping up the way it should be, I am almost to the point to sign up for HULU also. My kids are also complaining that their shows are not there anymore and when I ask, they said its due to the licensing agreements. Bottom line, if market does not break the high it made on the FED day last week, itâs a lower chance NFLX passes 320⦠weâll see
Now a couple of words to Mr. wall street / Pro trader
Why donât you go ahead and illuminate us on â the most obvious trading pattern known to man â
Lets see, umm.. Since 2002 and 18k post .. you are probably one of those who were laughing and humiliating others when they were buying in 2008, and calling it the best opportunity of human kind for short. And you are one those which I decided not to come here for a long time, But thank god people like Gringo are still around.
But cheer up buddy, it a small position with a tight stop â¦.
Don't take it personally, You just made a bad trade and it's why you are in the red today. That's what I love about this business. There is no need to "debate". Your p&l is giving you the answer.
Hey man, Im not taking it personally .. But hey, - my entry is 305 and my stop is above yesterday high, its not a loss till my stop hits, yes as of now Im in 1 dollar loss ): :eek: . With everything I do, you are damn right my P&L is the answer, and I bet ya, I am watching it every day.
My Friend, the thing is not about 1 trade, is profitable or not. the thing is what a trader sees as an opportunity, and of course not all of them will work.... the thing that makes you a trader is to find a system, try it and if it works, believe in it and trade it with discipline .. and not to care about what happens to 1 trade,
after a few years of trading EVERYONE KNOWS and I repeat EVERY ONE KNOWS if he/she is constantly making good or bad decisions, everyone discovers if the soul of a trader is or is not in you
So again , Cheers and wish you all profitable trades
I guess we have the answer now. I love the meritocracy of markets.