SHORT KSU @ $84.61 Stop @ $87.18
- Thread starter eganon69
- Start date
Any fundamental reason behind your decision to short this stock? Or is your decision merely influenced by temporary buy sell imbalance ?
That'll suck.
I am not sure if you are talking to me or the post above but I am shorting purely off TA. I look only at the stock and compare it to its sector. Its sector has been on a tear up and now overbought and due for a pullback in my opinion. This stock barely participated in the jump in transport/rails recently and has been in a down trend. It is at resistance and breaking down at that resistance. I anticipate rapid movement down here. I have no knowledge of buy/sell imbalance other than what I see here on the chart and volume numbers.
Kansas City Southern's buy rating reiterated at Loop Capital. $98.00 PT.
Interesting eganon, again a good idea.
Few people here give some good trading plan! Thank you.
But why don't you wait for a confirmation (aka close below $83.36) ?
In this trade, personally, I won't care to lose 1 dollar and wait, because downside potential is huge (target 70 dollars? 60 dollars ?)
I think this is the price to pay to be 99% sure you got downside pressure and volumes with you.
Moreover, if support holds @$83.36, you can still short this stock at a better price (for example, close to $90, and a stop above $93). My 2 cents opinion.
CM
Few people here give some good trading plan! Thank you.
But why don't you wait for a confirmation (aka close below $83.36) ?
In this trade, personally, I won't care to lose 1 dollar and wait, because downside potential is huge (target 70 dollars? 60 dollars ?)
I think this is the price to pay to be 99% sure you got downside pressure and volumes with you.
Moreover, if support holds @$83.36, you can still short this stock at a better price (for example, close to $90, and a stop above $93). My 2 cents opinion.
CM
Thanks for the input. Without revealing my entire method I can only say I do not expect this to go to $90 any time soon. My stop is around $87ish. I also am not certain it will reach $60 or lower although that is my final target (~$58). My first target is $78. I try to take signals as soon as I see them because it maximizes my profit. If I wait until $83 then I have lost $1.61 profit assuming it gets there. My current stop is about $2.50 higher. So that 1.61/2.50= 0.66R that I am losing out on. Also when you take a trade like that at $83 and the stop may be $86 or so at that point that is a $3 stop when I would take the trade. If my downside target is $78 I only have a $5 reward for a $3 risk. Here, I have a $6.61 reward for a $2.50 risk which is slightly lower than I like (R:R = 1:2.6). Truth is I actually am chasing a bit here and taking the trade later than I would like. If I had seen it sooner I would have shorted it a bit higher. It would be fantastic if it drops to $58 but my first target is $78. We will re-evaluate the trade everyday as it matures and make adjustments.
I appreciate your thoughts,
Eganon
Their PE ratio has been declining since 2013 - so they are not likely to grow much
Consistent with PE ratio analysis- they have been paying the same amount of dividend - suggesting that the firm will not grow much at this stage (i.e. their future cash flow will be more or less the same )
They have raised more debts in 2016 - which is not a bearish signal - they still have capacity
to raise money through debt
Consistent with debt to equity analysis - they have not issued any shares since 2013 - not a bearish signal at all.
Lastly, their gross margin has been increasing since 2014 - which is a good signal. It means that they have been able to generate higher revenue while keeping their cost constant.
I don't see any bearish signal from the fundamental analysis - so current downmove is likely to be caused by temporary buy-sell imbalance (liquidity driven or could be a correction ) but I agree that this firm will not grow much at this stage
just my 2 cents,
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