Short Housing

Daq,

If people re-fi only the outstanding balance, then yes, re-fi's are a great tool to reduce monthly expenses. The problem is people are financing toys and lifestyles by pulling equity out of the homes. Smart?????? not IMO. When required to move by job or family space issues these same folks will find themselves upside down in their home sooner or later.

Later,

Cracked
 
Hello all,
For those of you who subscribe to murphymorris.com, John recently reported that both the housing and financial sectors have dipped under their 200 DMA, and that the prognosis longterm is bearish. With John Murphy behind you, the odds are definitely in your favor if you've a mind to short the housing sector. Tasuki
 
Originally posted by crackedback
Daq,

If people re-fi only the outstanding balance, then yes, re-fi's are a great tool to reduce monthly expenses. The problem is people are financing toys and lifestyles by pulling equity out of the homes. Smart?????? not IMO. When required to move by job or family space issues these same folks will find themselves upside down in their home sooner or later.

Later,

Cracked
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i agree 100%....
 
Originally posted by DaqTrader




that sounds great , but if you aren't looking to sell, then maybe the lower rate refi was a good bargain don't ya think??
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depends on when you bought the house, at what price, how long you are going to keep it....did you refi the value of the original mortgage or did you capture some of the equity???

i think most people on this thread are looking at home prices with a short term outlook. 30 yrs from now your rate may have been a great deal!!!!!!!!
 
Originally posted by Bryan Roberts


depends on when you bought the house, at what price, how long you are going to keep it....did you refi the value of the original mortgage or did you capture some of the equity???

i think most people on this thread are looking at home prices with a short term outlook. 30 yrs from now your rate may have been a great deal!!!!!!!!
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I bought 2 yrs ago at 8% have 80k equity in the house and have only put $5000 or so into the house....i think i did ok....just refi'd
 
I have been thinking about selling. Seems like it always best to sell into up movement.
But if I sold my house tomorrow, what is the next move? Rent and pay too much and wait for a dip in the RE market while getting no benefit of being an owner? And what if the market doesn't turn? Then what? I will have sold my home for too little and be faced with even higher prices as a buyer.
Is there an answer? After what happened to my personal stock portfolio, I truly wonder if there is a right way to deal with this. (as an investment....not that a house should be looked at that way....)
 
Much like those that held on at NASDAQ 5000, the "What to do with my Home" question is a bit more difficult. I don't know where you are located, but, if you are in one of the hyper-appreciation areas... watch out. Just like stocks, home equity is paper profits. No cash out, no gain in the bank account.

With the favorable treatment for gains on homes, it may make sense to cash out. Also, being a trader affords the oppotunity to write of a portion of the rent you might pay. I know it doesn't replace the write off from home ownership, but, it is viable. Hypothetically, How would you feel if your house once sold for 300K was worth 150-180K. Suddenly renting doesn't look so bad. I know it sounds strange to think values may fall that much, however, it isn't unprecedented. It all depends on the level of equity currently in your residence.

Later,

Cracked
 
Originally posted by crackedback
It all depends on the level of equity currently in your residence.

Later,

Cracked
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Well this is the problem. My equity has skyrocketed in the past 3 years. But how do you know when the top really is? If I cash out now, and rent, and the market tops out say in another 3 years, and then drops to todays levels, then I am not better off at all. I will have spent years not building any equity, not getting preferential tax treatment....
If I could buy puts, like I should have done on my stocks. Well, I guess I am just wondering if there is a way to "short against the box" so to speak. Maybe short REITs? I know how to lock in profits on stocks, or hedge. I just don't have a clue about RE.
 
Others have mentioned shorting bonds, likely because a rising interest rate will correspond with a decrease in housing prices.

A couple of things to look for are avg time a listing is on the market, total units available for sale. Call any local realtor and they can give you the stats. If they can break it down to your homes price range, even better. I'd look for an up-trend of a few months in either of the two mentioned stats to gauge the direction if the market, along with 15 & 30 year fixed rates.

FYI, I'm pissed I sold my place in Long Beach, CA 1 1/2 years ago. Sellers remorse. Made some good coin, but the places are another 25-35% higher than when I sold. Should have rented the place out, but, had other more important family issues to deal with which took precedent. Likely couldn't have handled being a landlord while all the family stuff was occurring anyways.

Just my two cents,

Cracked
 
Originally posted by crackedback
Others have mentioned shorting bonds, likely because a rising interest rate will correspond with a decrease in housing prices.
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If interest rates go up, it would be to control inflation. In an inflationary environment, why would housing prices decrease?

Originally posted by crackedback
A couple of things to look for are avg time a listing is on the market, total units available for sale. Call any local realtor and they can give you the stats. If they can break it down to your homes price range, even better
More...

This is part of the dilemma....What goes on the market gets sold immediately. Seems overheated to me, but how do you know how long it can continue?
 
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