Short Gold since November 2011, went long today

[taojaxx]

@$1230. We'll see what happens.
Enjoyed the ride from $1550 to $1230 and still think GC is in a bear market (headed to $800 or lower) but think I can identify (and make money out of) some of its fits and starts.
Will try to report regularly my trades.

 

[taojaxx]

Long (MGC on CME) at $1237.Will post when I next trade (adding to long or exiting -profitably or otherwise-). Infrequent trader here, so it may take a while...

 

[trilogic]

what was thinking for going "long", I have noticed rally in Gold despite equity makets coming back u pa bit, ominous warning ? Eur down a bit, got to believe there will be even more QE over there,

you have any targets, also may have to wait to next FOMC next week before another real move? Where it will move from will be interesting hope closer to 1288 december contract

 

[taojaxx]

Hi Logic,
Rationale is until now Mr. Market had two scenarios in mind: the Austrian economists "QE=hyperinflation" and the Fed scenario "we're in control and there's no inflation". As scenario 1 proved false, gold slumped. Now Mr. Market has a third scenario, deflation. Gold does well in deflation as other yields turn negative and gold yield remains zero. That's one bullish factor. The other one is deflation is deadly, so central bankers might be tempted to reflate at all costs to avoid falling into it. That's also bullish for gold.
So my guess is you'll see your 1288 GCZ

 

[trilogic]

thanks.


How do you or do you manage position around FOMC meetings, seems explosive at these times,

 

[taojaxx]

I don't. My positions are sized to live through high volatility. They're not trading positions, they're more like asset allocations. Short position I just covered lasted from November 2011 to last week. Was short @ $1550 and stayed so through run-ups to $1850 or so. My stop loss was at the September 2011 peak ($1925). So I just cruise through FOMC meetings.
My philosophy in markets is to have solid research (so better information) and well sized positions (so limited leverage and therefore far away stop-losses).
Lethal danger in markets is capital not sized to the quality of your information: the worse your information, the more capital you need. If you have perfect information, you don't need any capital (That'd be Goldman Sachs). If you have zero information and a lot of capital, that capital becomes the other guys' capital: they'll eat your lunch.

 

[trilogic]

excellent!

 

[murray t turtle]

I don't. My positions are sized to live through high volatility. They're not trading positions, they're more like asset allocations. Short position I just covered lasted from November 2011 to last week. Was short @ $1550 and stayed so through run-ups to $1850 or so. My stop loss was at the September 2011 peak ($1925). So I just cruise through FOMC meetings.
My philosophy in markets is to have solid research (so better information) and well sized positions (so limited leverage and therefore far away stop-losses).
Lethal danger in markets is capital not sized to the quality of your information: .......................................quote]
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
Good points. tha fact that Jim Roges does real well, like s gold
+ has a better, thoughtful commodities index than GS, that can help. But the fact most of the longer term trends in gold are up; thats maybe more important than what the GS, C, BAC opinion is. Its true GS, or WFC stock does tend to do better than C, UBS, AIG,KEY,BAC............................................................................................Not a prediction; wisdom is profitable to direct. thanks

 

[stock777]

howz that gold woiken out for ya ?

junk

 

[nomoremondays]

Short position I just covered lasted from November 2011 to last week. Was short @ $1550 and stayed so through run-ups to $1850 or so. My stop loss was at the September 2011 peak ($1925).

Damn! more power to you I suppose.