Short facebook. On Nov 14th, it will be trading under $10

Quote from sudoTrader:

Well shit I just bought puts today :O
More...

Watch the open carefully, at the slightest uptick, get the hell out of your position. If you do it before guys like peli, you shouldn't lose too much.
 
Quote from fareastcoast:

Yea, my statement posted last Thursday was made prior to the squeeze on Monday. In effect, I predicted correctly that a squeeze would occur, hence the exit of my short position on Friday.

Monday had 2x the volume of Friday. My second assertion made today was that first, the smart money has exited their shorts. Most pulled out on Friday, the slower ones got out Monday morning when 19.25 was breached. The dumb money that shorted on Friday got squeezed out on Monday.

As a result, there's not a lot of shorts left and no new shorts looking to enter the fray. So what will happen tomorrow?

Well, for one, the stock won't drop. When there is no drop, the last short holdouts will cover. Not a lot of them left, but enough to push it up. And when it is clear there won't be a bloodbath, institutional buyers waiting on the sidelines will step in as they see the price rising. Long is the correct bet on FB right now. Any shares picked up for under $20 should be considered a bargain. Close above $21 highly likely tomorrow.
More...

Let us be clear. Tommorrow, $15 billion dollars worth of stock becomes available for sale. Even if those people who are able to sell only take a tiny amount of their shares off the table (say 10%) Thats still 80 million shares to be sold. There are not even half that many TOTAL shorts, so if every single short covered tommorrow, there would still need to be buyers for an extra 40 million shares dumped on the market.

And 10% is a very conservative number. I think more realistically we are going to see around 20% of those shares sold tommorrow at least. People have been waiting along time to get their money off the table.
 
It is already priced in. On any dip below $20, institutions who want in are already waiting to buy shares.

And lets say you are right, of the shares hitting the market tomorrow, 10% are to be sold. They aren't all going to go the very first day. They will be staggered out over the next couple weeks. But that's too long for the shorters faced with options expiration. They will exit tomorrow or Thursday.
 
Unfortunately, it looks like I'm right and shorters are going to be in major trouble today. There's still an hour until open and FB is already testing 20.25.

EDIT: decisive break above 20.25, look for open around 20.50, hope you guys are all long now.
approaching 5 million shares traded already so hardly light volume

shorts are soooo screwed today
 
Quote from fareastcoast:

Unfortunately, it looks like I'm right and shorters are going to be in major trouble today. There's still an hour until open and FB is already testing 20.25.
More...


Yeah, it was down about an hour ago and then at 8am it really took off. (Retail traders getting scared). I don't think these are new buyers, but shorts getting out before market opens. This means less shorts covering as the insiders start selling, so thats good for us. It should be an interesting day though.
 
Quote from peilthetraveler:

Yeah, it was down about an hour ago and then at 8am it really took off. (Retail traders getting scared). I don't think these are new buyers, but shorts getting out before market opens. This means less shorts covering as the insiders start selling, so thats good for us. It should be an interesting day though.
More...

Institutions don't start buying until opening cross. And today, they will hold off until the volatility at open settles down. After that, it's an avalanche of buying through the day...

There's a lot of big players who think FB is a long term value play and that the stock has bottomed. Once the non-existent drop is proven to be non-existent, it's just going to be a wall of orders on the buy side...

EDIT: over 7 million shares traded already. shorters are covering, insiders are selling. by the time we get to open, there won't be a lot of insiders still with share to sell at this rate.

EDIT2: don't know how well you guys followed the last two lockup releases. but in the two previous times, premarket was a flood of selling, falling 3-5% even before open. the fact that we are seeing an INCREASE in the stock price before open this time around is strong signalling that we're looking at something different altogether. don't say i didn't warn you.
 
"During the summer, Sheryl Sandberg, Facebook’s chief operating officer, showed up on Wall Street and reportedly explained that it was part of Facebook’s culture to let insiders and venture capitalists quickly cash-out their Facebook stock. It has at times seemed like the company was being run for the benefit of some sort of early-investor club more than for public shareholders."
http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanv...l-facebook-stock-lock-up-expirations-is-here/
 
Get out everybody. FB is being supported at 20. Huge orders being placed each time it nears 20. There are big players in action today. Without knowing their intentions, retail is likely to lose.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top