Short facebook. On Nov 14th, it will be trading under $10

I've been sitting on the side lines watching this so what I'm wondering is if you were an insider that had thousands, tens of thousands of shares or more would you sell wednesday and lock out your price at $20?

Personally I think facebook is pretty lame. People filling it up with personal info that no one cares about and ads that no one looks at. How are they going to make money going forward and will it just be replaced by some other passing fad?
 
Quote from Rob227:

I've been sitting on the side lines watching this so what I'm wondering is if you were an insider that had thousands, tens of thousands of shares or more would you sell wednesday and lock out your price at $20?

Personally I think facebook is pretty lame. People filling it up with personal info that no one cares about and ads that no one looks at. How are they going to make money going forward and will it just be replaced by some other passing fad?
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If I was an insider and I had been waiting all these years to cash out, I would sell on wednesday when my lockups expire. Especially when the COO is selling at $20. Even if you do believe in FB, surely after waiting so long, you would want to at least cash out 20, 30 or even 50% of your holdings on the 14th.

Also imagine this....You get a stock and your broker won't let you sell. Stock drops 50%. Broker one day says "Ok you can sell now" Wouldn't you sell? Most of you guys are out of a trade if the stock drops 1%. Multiply that by 50. You say you are still not selling? It's going to be a bloodbath on Wednesday. I'm glad the weak hands got out today. They will probably get back in tommorrow as the price starts falling again.
 
Quote from peilthetraveler:

If I was an insider and I had been waiting all these years to cash out, I would sell on wednesday when my lockups expire. Especially when the COO is selling at $20. Even if you do believe in FB, surely after waiting so long, you would want to at least cash out 20, 30 or even 50% of your holdings on the 14th.

Also imagine this....You get a stock and your broker won't let you sell. Stock drops 50%. Broker one day says "Ok you can sell now" Wouldn't you sell? Most of you guys are out of a trade if the stock drops 1%. Multiply that by 50. You say you are still not selling? It's going to be a bloodbath on Wednesday. I'm glad the weak hands got out today. They will probably get back in tommorrow as the price starts falling again.
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Who needs Yahoo message boards with analysis like this? How is it possible that you've not been snapped-up by Tudor, Soros or Paulson?
 
Quote from Rob227:

We're all waiting for your professional analysis now that you've crapped all over his post.
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I've given it, read the thread. The lockup is in the mkt and today's rally on twice Friday's volume is indicative. Does anyone honestly think the street is waiting for the lockup to sell/short? Obviously the insider sales will be headwind, but I'd bet we're higher come next Monday than today's close.

Seriously, there is a reason God made mutual funds. Peil is THE demographic.

And you're shorting because facebook is lame.
 
Quote from atticus:

That you don't understand that this is "in the market" leads me to assume you're pretty new at this. It may touch $19 next week, but I doubt it highly.

Want to bet on a touch of $18 by the 4pm Eastern on the 18th?
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This is what Atticus said a week ago so we know he doesnt know shit. It touched $18 today. Looks like you lost the bet atticus.

If you guys on ET ever want to make money trading, just do the opposite of what atticus does and you will win every time.
 
Quote from atticus:

I've given it, read the thread. The lockup is in the mkt and today's rally on twice Friday's volume is indicative. Does anyone honestly think the street is waiting for the lockup to sell/short? Obviously the insider sales will be headwind, but I'd bet we're higher come next Monday than today's close.

Seriously, there is a reason God made mutual funds. Peil is THE demographic.

And you're shorting because facebook is lame.
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Doesnt matter what the street is doing. On the 14th, there is going to be selling. The street selling is just because they know the price is going to drop on the 14th. Has nothing to do with being "priced in" Nobody is talking about what FB will do later in the future. This thread is ALL about the 14th and making money till then.
 
Quote from atticus:

That you don't understand that this is "in the market" leads me to assume you're pretty new at this. It may touch $19 next week, but I doubt it highly.

Want to bet on a touch of $18 by the 4pm Eastern on the 19th?
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How did you f*ck that up so unmercifully? 18.87 is not 18.00, but I can understand how someone of your immense capabilities could forget that math can occur to the right of the decimal point.

We're over $20 and never got within 80 cents of that strike.

Quote from peilthetraveler:

This is what Atticus said a week ago so we know he doesnt know shit. It touched $18 today. Looks like you lost the bet atticus.

If you guys on ET ever want to make money trading, just do the opposite of what atticus does and you will win every time.
More...
 
Quote from peilthetraveler:

Doesnt matter what the street is doing. On the 14th, there is going to be selling. The street selling is just because they know the price is going to drop on the 14th. Has nothing to do with being "priced in" Nobody is talking about what FB will do later in the future. This thread is ALL about the 14th and making money till then.
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Quote from peilthetraveler:

Short facebook. On Nov 14th, it will be trading under $10
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