Short facebook. On Nov 14th, it will be trading under $10

marcoPolo21 · Nov 11, 2012

Quote from marcoPolo21:
my sources tell me you should cover - now
because the market may have given you a gift today, with the election
on the other hand, there's a 50% chance they could be wrong
marc

yikes,
not looking good [for [us] longs], at least in the short-term

I have to admit,
I'm getting a little nervous coming into this unlock week

I own mostly Leap options, so I still have some time

marc
:eek:

peilthetraveler · Nov 11, 2012

Quote from marcoPolo21:

yikes,
not looking good [for [us] longs], at least in the short-term

I have to admit,
I'm getting a little nervous coming into this unlock week

I own mostly Leap options, so I still have some time

marc
:eek:

I'm not trying to be a smart ass or anything, but why would you be long next week? Is there any reason to think people will be buying anytime before the 14th, when pretty much everyone & their mother knows about the lockup expirations? I would think if they were going to buy FB, it would be AFTER the 14th. (actually I think the lock ups will try selling over a few days, maybe even a few weeks to not completely tank the price to single digits in one day) If I was ever going to buy FB, for me I wouldn't be buying until after thanksgiving.

FrankSlaughtery · Nov 12, 2012

Quote from peilthetraveler:

I'm not trying to be a smart ass or anything, but why would you be long next week? Is there any reason to think people will be buying anytime before the 14th, when pretty much everyone & their mother knows about the lockup expirations?

not trying to start an internet fight but just a reminder that anything can happen in the market as mark douglas reminds us. for ex, YELP was expected to drop b/c of a lock up the end of aug yet it rallied huge - just check out the price action from 8/29/12-9/5/12. if you shorted and didn't honor your stop you ate about a 45% loss in less than a week.

peilthetraveler · Nov 12, 2012

Quote from FrankSlaughtery:

not trying to start an internet fight but just a reminder that anything can happen in the market as mark douglas reminds us. for ex, YELP was expected to drop b/c of a lock up the end of aug yet it rallied huge - just check out the price action from 8/29/12-9/5/12. if you shorted and didn't honor your stop you ate about a 45% loss in less than a week.

Of course anything can happen, but that is a terrible way to justify holding a stock that everyone thinks is going down. Its about 3 minutes after open now. Facebook is down another 1% already.

marcoPolo21 · Nov 12, 2012

Quote from peilthetraveler:

I'm not trying to be a smart ass or anything, but why would you be long next week? Is there any reason to think people will be buying anytime before the 14th, when pretty much everyone & their mother knows about the lockup expirations? I would think if they were going to buy FB, it would be AFTER the 14th. (actually I think the lock ups will try selling over a few days, maybe even a few weeks to not completely tank the price to single digits in one day) If I was ever going to buy FB, for me I wouldn't be buying until after thanksgiving.

now you tell me!

marc

fareastcoast · Nov 12, 2012

well, it appears the squeeze i was worried about on Friday has indeed occurred....good thing i covered

fareastcoast · Nov 12, 2012

Quote from peilthetraveler:

I'm not trying to be a smart ass or anything, but why would you be long next week? Is there any reason to think people will be buying anytime before the 14th, when pretty much everyone & their mother knows about the lockup expirations?

This is precisely why the short squeeze occurred today. Everybody knows everybody and their mother is short. So all it takes is a slight bump for everybody to start scurrying for cover.

On the other hand, now that many shorts have been burned, there's a chance to short again at a 3% better price. I would watch the $20 level with a lot of care.

Also, FYI:
http://money.cnn.com/2012/08/29/technology/yelp-lockup/index.html

Everybody be careful, there's potential for a massive squeeze tomorrow and Wednesday. Remember, retail traders are idiots and always lose, and retail is short right now.

brokerboy · Nov 12, 2012

Quote from peilthetraveler:

If it were illegal to accept money to advertise stocks, writers for motley fool, seeking alpha and the like, would be sued everyday because they are paid to write articles about stocks. As long as you state whether you own or do not own and don't make a transaction within so many business days of that advertisement, you can accept money. There is really no difference between a writer and a TV show host, just one is written down and one is using the spoken words. It might not be so blatant as "here is $50k, tell people to buy facebook", but its the same scenario, just written in a language to make it legal.

it is somewhat illegal if you don't believe it and imply neutrality like cnbc does. your turning jim cramer into montel williams now and for 10k montel would pimp his kids.

atticus · Nov 12, 2012

Quote from peilthetraveler:

Of course anything can happen, but that is a terrible way to justify holding a stock that everyone thinks is going down. Its about 3 minutes after open now. Facebook is down another 1% already.

Yes! 1%!

(umm, it's up 4% now) Who do I call for the refund?!

fareastcoast · Nov 12, 2012

If anybody is still short, I'd stay short overnight. There's a good chance it sells off tomorrow. However, if 20 is broken, cut your losses and run for cover!