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Aweful analysis
short EUR/USD...
- Thread starter empee
- Start date
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Aweful analysis
i stopped again for breakeven last night. Will wait to see if I get a good re-entry. The actual signal was supposed to go short at 1.2075, but i wasn't here so thats why I keep getting mucked at these lower levels. Anyway, it should have gone by now which portends we might get a squeeze higher. Will wait for another opportunity.
So far, -12 pips x 4 trades.
PS: Both times I've stopped at high of the day so far!
im still referring to the december future so subtract like 33-37 pts to get spot price
So far, -12 pips x 4 trades.
PS: Both times I've stopped at high of the day so far!
im still referring to the december future so subtract like 33-37 pts to get spot price
I would like to remind everyone that one of the keys to trading is money management. You basically size your bet based on probabilities, with occassional situations where you get home run swing type trades.
This trade is one of those (home-run swing attempt). I wait for months for these types of trades but when they arrive I bet BIG, no questions asked; this trade is meant to be a LARGE move.
If this setup ultimately fails the failures are even better to trade and I will be in the opposite direction, once again looking for a big move.
However, I am still waiting a re-entry in my original direction.
This trade is one of those (home-run swing attempt). I wait for months for these types of trades but when they arrive I bet BIG, no questions asked; this trade is meant to be a LARGE move.
If this setup ultimately fails the failures are even better to trade and I will be in the opposite direction, once again looking for a big move.
However, I am still waiting a re-entry in my original direction.
Is that some support/resistance type technical analysis that makes you sure for homerun swing trade?
Is it a sort of system to help you pick the situation, or not.
Just curisous, thanks.
Is it a sort of system to help you pick the situation, or not.
Just curisous, thanks.
this is system that is based on panic and greed of individuals. It does not use traditional analysis but works across all markets. It does not use S/R although I look at those personally, however it gauges emotion of when people are going to panic and sell or panic and buy (ie getting left behind). Right now its showing a panic sell in EUR/USD so now its just waiting for it to happen, the way you know is that you will get a candle like yesterday (wide) but there needs to be a lot of volume as well, normal buyers and sellers dont buy like that, that is PANIC, or stop runs, or whatever of people bailing.
So, anyway its not whats usual; but I'm showing a major panic sell in this instrument coming up, now we may get a hammer type candle (if you use candlesticks) where it thrusts down and then the longs come in and save it, but I don't think I have ever seen it not at least generate a reaction; so the question is once the panic sell starts are there enough buyers to prevent it from selling off, that happens about 30% of the time so 70% of the time the panic sellers take price lower.
In this case, significantly lower. Remember its a chain reaction that the intiall sellers will panic additional sellers, et. al to cause a big move, but we need volume on the move, as that is the "panic" we are looking for.
Remember, on the thrust down, these sellers are not selling because they want to, they are terrified and are selling at any price to stop the pain.
Anyway, this system is based on human psychology and has nothing to do with fundamentals, typical technical analysis, candles, s/r or anything else really. However, it works really well when it works, and it works pretty often.
If we get the thrust and it fails to break, I will be look for a big position the other direction.
I am currently flat and waiting.
-12 pips x 4 trades.
Last two trades I stopped at HOD.
So, anyway its not whats usual; but I'm showing a major panic sell in this instrument coming up, now we may get a hammer type candle (if you use candlesticks) where it thrusts down and then the longs come in and save it, but I don't think I have ever seen it not at least generate a reaction; so the question is once the panic sell starts are there enough buyers to prevent it from selling off, that happens about 30% of the time so 70% of the time the panic sellers take price lower.
In this case, significantly lower. Remember its a chain reaction that the intiall sellers will panic additional sellers, et. al to cause a big move, but we need volume on the move, as that is the "panic" we are looking for.
Remember, on the thrust down, these sellers are not selling because they want to, they are terrified and are selling at any price to stop the pain.
Anyway, this system is based on human psychology and has nothing to do with fundamentals, typical technical analysis, candles, s/r or anything else really. However, it works really well when it works, and it works pretty often.
If we get the thrust and it fails to break, I will be look for a big position the other direction.
I am currently flat and waiting.
-12 pips x 4 trades.
Last two trades I stopped at HOD.
Awful chart
:eek:
Trend line is holding. 