EUR/JPY the focus in Asia
Category: Overnight news
Tags: open
We have been beating this drum very loudly for the past few weeks but we think there could be a compelling picture emerging in EUR/JPY. In our opinion, the political will is for the EUR to weaken and the Asian currencies to strengthen; the fundamental view from many major banks is that the "fair value" for EUR/JPY is somewhere around 125-130; the market chatter is that the big hedge fund players are starting to sell; in addition to this, the big "parking positions" for many investment funds who are looking for FX exposure is in long EUR/JPY positions (and this has been extremely profitable over the last 7 years); and finally, although this is more subjective, we can see a technical argument that a longer-term top is forming now just below 170 and we are due for a considerable correction.
EUR/USD is seeing a lot of selling from real-money funds and even though the 1.5365 support held again last night, any break below 1.5345 could see the floodgates open. Watch for major support levels such as this in the EUR/USD to break and watch also for sharp and severe sell-offs in USD/JPY. If you see both these events happening within a short space of time of each other, then you will know that the famous "scissors" cross move is underway and its time to jump on.
EUR/JPY support on the day is at 160.60/70 and the hourly momentum indicators are currently very heavily oversold.
Good luck today.