Short DAX at 7740
- Thread starter ASusilovic
- Start date
Weekly SMA runing at 5363.00. 
Oh and everythin below 5363.00 is simply a buy.
Oh and everythin below 5363.00 is simply a buy.
The equity cycle is divided in 4 distinct phases
The equity market moves in cycles. In order to develop a frame of reference for investors, we show how the cycle is divided into four distinct phases from one peak of the market to the next: Despair, Hope, Growth and Optimism. In Part 1 of this series, we analyzed the economic context and the drivers of stock market returns for each phase. Here in Part 2, we analyze asset, style and sector performance.
We are currently in the Hope phase
In this phase the stylized performance patterns are: equities outperform bonds and commodities. Cyclicals outperform Defensives, Industrial Cyclicals underperform Consumer Cyclicals, Large Caps underperform Small Caps and Value outperforms Growth. At the sector level, Travel & Leisure, Chemicals and Autos & Parts perform well whereas Utilities and Food & Beverage do poorly.
We expect a move to the Growth phase in 2010...
The equity market moves in cycles. In order to develop a frame of reference for investors, we show how the cycle is divided into four distinct phases from one peak of the market to the next: Despair, Hope, Growth and Optimism. In Part 1 of this series, we analyzed the economic context and the drivers of stock market returns for each phase. Here in Part 2, we analyze asset, style and sector performance.
We are currently in the Hope phase
In this phase the stylized performance patterns are: equities outperform bonds and commodities. Cyclicals outperform Defensives, Industrial Cyclicals underperform Consumer Cyclicals, Large Caps underperform Small Caps and Value outperforms Growth. At the sector level, Travel & Leisure, Chemicals and Autos & Parts perform well whereas Utilities and Food & Beverage do poorly.
We expect a move to the Growth phase in 2010...
Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Lloyds Banking Group Plc will receive 31.3 billion pounds ($51 billion) from the U.K. taxpayer in their second bailout.
The Treasury will inject 25.5 billion pounds into RBS, for a total of 45.5 billion pounds, making it the costliest bailout of any bank worldwide. Lloyds will raise 21 billion pounds from investors, with the government providing 5.8 billion pounds.
The rescue, which follows the 37 billion pounds the two lenders received last year, will bring the government closer to full ownership over RBS, while Lloyds will escape government control by raising money from institutional investors. In return for state aid, the banks will sell assets and accept limits on pay. The two banks said they wonât pay cash bonuses to workers earning more than 39,000 pounds a year.
âWe donât want to demonize people in banking,â City Minister Paul Myners said in an interview with BBC television today, adding that most people in banking are not highly paid. âBut at the top of banking, weâre going to bear down on remuneration.â
The government will buy 25.5 billion pounds of âBâ shares in RBS to strengthen the lenderâs capital, the bank said in a statement today. The agreement will increase the governmentâs stake in the lender to 84.4 percent from 70 percent today.
The lender will sell its insurance division and some bank branches after negotiations with the European Commission and the U.K. Treasury. RBS also agreed to put 282 billion pounds of assets into the governmentâs Asset Protection Scheme, the Edinburgh-based bank said today in a statement.
âAcceptable Resultâ
âThe agreement in principle reached with the EC is clearly more material for the structure of our Group than we had hoped, increasing risk to both execution of the plan and earnings dilution,â Chief Executive Officer Stephen Hester said today. âBut this is still an acceptable result for RBS.â
Lloyds, the U.K.âs biggest mortgage lender, plans to raise 21 billion pounds, denying the government majority control. The bank will raise 13.5 billion pounds in the U.K.âs biggest rights offering, and 7.5 billion pounds in exchange offers, the London- based bank said in its statement. The U.K. owns 43 percent of Lloyds.
Dip buying opportunity...
The Treasury will inject 25.5 billion pounds into RBS, for a total of 45.5 billion pounds, making it the costliest bailout of any bank worldwide. Lloyds will raise 21 billion pounds from investors, with the government providing 5.8 billion pounds.
The rescue, which follows the 37 billion pounds the two lenders received last year, will bring the government closer to full ownership over RBS, while Lloyds will escape government control by raising money from institutional investors. In return for state aid, the banks will sell assets and accept limits on pay. The two banks said they wonât pay cash bonuses to workers earning more than 39,000 pounds a year.
âWe donât want to demonize people in banking,â City Minister Paul Myners said in an interview with BBC television today, adding that most people in banking are not highly paid. âBut at the top of banking, weâre going to bear down on remuneration.â
The government will buy 25.5 billion pounds of âBâ shares in RBS to strengthen the lenderâs capital, the bank said in a statement today. The agreement will increase the governmentâs stake in the lender to 84.4 percent from 70 percent today.
The lender will sell its insurance division and some bank branches after negotiations with the European Commission and the U.K. Treasury. RBS also agreed to put 282 billion pounds of assets into the governmentâs Asset Protection Scheme, the Edinburgh-based bank said today in a statement.
âAcceptable Resultâ
âThe agreement in principle reached with the EC is clearly more material for the structure of our Group than we had hoped, increasing risk to both execution of the plan and earnings dilution,â Chief Executive Officer Stephen Hester said today. âBut this is still an acceptable result for RBS.â
Lloyds, the U.K.âs biggest mortgage lender, plans to raise 21 billion pounds, denying the government majority control. The bank will raise 13.5 billion pounds in the U.K.âs biggest rights offering, and 7.5 billion pounds in exchange offers, the London- based bank said in its statement. The U.K. owns 43 percent of Lloyds.
Dip buying opportunity...
Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The euro-area economy may expand 0.7 percent next year, the European Commission said, raising its forecast even as budget deficits and jobless ranks swell further.
The economy of the 16 countries sharing the euro will resume growth in 2010 and expand 1.5 percent in 2011, after contracting 4 percent this year, the Brussels-based commission, the European Unionâs executive, said today in its semi-annual economic forecasts. It previously forecast a 0.1 percent contraction in 2010. The regionâs average budget deficit will swell to 6.9 percent of gross domestic product next year and slip to 6.5 percent in 2011 and unemployment will rise into 2011, reaching 10.9 percent, the highest since at least 1995.
European companies from STMicroelectronics NV to Pernod Ricard SA cited signs of recovery as they reported earnings in the past month, suggesting that record-low interest rates and government stimulus measures are feeding into the broader economy. Even as consumer confidence improves, soaring budget deficits and unemployment rates threaten to undermine the recovery from the worst recession in six decades.
âWhile the recession may be over, the impact of the crisis is not,â the commission said in the report. For a âsolid, sustainableâ recovery, âit will be key to tackle the labor- market and debt challenges.â
More Optimistic
The commissionâs growth forecasts are more optimistic than predictions from the International Monetary Fund on Oct. 1 that the region will grow 0.3 percent next year after a 4.2 percent contraction in 2009. The IMF forecast an unemployment rate of 11.7 percent for next year.
Dip buying opportunity...
The economy of the 16 countries sharing the euro will resume growth in 2010 and expand 1.5 percent in 2011, after contracting 4 percent this year, the Brussels-based commission, the European Unionâs executive, said today in its semi-annual economic forecasts. It previously forecast a 0.1 percent contraction in 2010. The regionâs average budget deficit will swell to 6.9 percent of gross domestic product next year and slip to 6.5 percent in 2011 and unemployment will rise into 2011, reaching 10.9 percent, the highest since at least 1995.
European companies from STMicroelectronics NV to Pernod Ricard SA cited signs of recovery as they reported earnings in the past month, suggesting that record-low interest rates and government stimulus measures are feeding into the broader economy. Even as consumer confidence improves, soaring budget deficits and unemployment rates threaten to undermine the recovery from the worst recession in six decades.
âWhile the recession may be over, the impact of the crisis is not,â the commission said in the report. For a âsolid, sustainableâ recovery, âit will be key to tackle the labor- market and debt challenges.â
More Optimistic
The commissionâs growth forecasts are more optimistic than predictions from the International Monetary Fund on Oct. 1 that the region will grow 0.3 percent next year after a 4.2 percent contraction in 2009. The IMF forecast an unemployment rate of 11.7 percent for next year.
Dip buying opportunity...