Short DAX at 7740

[ASusilovic]

Exiting some puts, investing proceeds into 4700 calls expiry Sep 09.

Yes, we can !

 

[archimg77]

Quote from ASusilovic:

Frankfurt am Main, July 2, 2009. In the first half of 2009, registrations of new passenger cars in Germany rose by 26 percent, to 2.06 million units. The figure for June even amounted to 427,000 passenger cars, an increase of more than 40 percent compared to the same month last year. The result was the best for the month of June since the German reunification in 1990. However, this development is largely the result of the revised motor vehicle tax and the scrappage program (known as "environmental premium" in Germany). "Because the global financial and economic crisis has led to a plunge in exports especially, these incentives boost domestic demand particularly for small and compact cars and have thereby stabilized workforce levels this year," said Matthias Wissmann, President of the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA), at the VDA half-year press conference in Frankfurt.

I know that dax depends on auto industry but today there is EU GDP and GER industrial production.
GDP terrible but production can surprise. This should help to stay positive today.

DAX vs. SMI, I made some backtesting and it seems that there is some way to widen the spread. Today, it strated shrink given swiss unemployment. I guess one has to hold position longer with some accumulation because it made me loss. Are you in position?

 

[archimg77]

As everybody expected good numbers (+3.7 ind. production) sell the fact. This is called "efficient" market!

 

[ASusilovic]

Quote from archimg77:

I know that dax depends on auto industry but today there is EU GDP and GER industrial production.
GDP terrible but production can surprise. This should help to stay positive today.

DAX vs. SMI, I made some backtesting and it seems that there is some way to widen the spread. Today, it strated shrink given swiss unemployment. I guess one has to hold position longer with some accumulation because it made me loss. Are you in position?

Do not forget the currency factor...yes, I am always in position.

 

[makloda]

Production rose 3.7 percent from April, when it dropped 2.6 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. That’s the biggest gain since August 1993. Economists predicted an increase of 0.5 percent, the median of 38 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey showed.

Beating expectations... is that why Schatzi, Bobl and Bund are up?

 

[xty]

Quote from ASusilovic:

Do not forget the currency factor...yes, I am always in position.

Do u do the DAX vs ES ?

 

[ASusilovic]

We continue to believe that the underlying trend in the equity market is upwards. A high ERP, improved credit markets and higher operational gearing are all supportive, despite the prospects of a weak economic backdrop. We focus on three themes: Global rebalancing, higher operational gearing and greater alpha differentiation.

Tracking previous recoveries

It appears that we are moving from a ‘trust me’ to a ‘show me’ phase. Many argue that the market has risen too far and too fast and that any further progress depends on an actual recovery in the economy. However, benchmarking the post March rebound to the recovery from other major bear market lows suggests that price action so far is not unusual, nor does it look as if it has moved ahead of the macro data.

 

[ASusilovic]

Quote from xty:

Do u do the DAX vs ES ?

Yes.

 

[ASusilovic]

240 min SMA = 4626.00. Next target : 4698.00 For the bulls.

For the bears : every day we are reading so many heartbreaking bad news. Chose what you need as an excuse for a sell off !

 

[archimg77]

Quote from ASusilovic:

Do not forget the currency factor...yes, I am always in position.

I entered again, went ok, closed, thanks for a good tip, EUR/CHF is an issue I should have been short but it moved up today from yesterdays 1.51 so that I would make me hole.