Short DAX at 7740

Quote from Topsurfi:

maybe you have an asymmetric exit strategy. You have to work on that. Maybe if the news event is on your side you will cover after you got 10 points and if it runs against you are not reacting fast enough but just watching until the pain gets to big.
If you don't use stops it is crucial to exit if you feel something is not running OK for you. If you are really good, you can exit before it hits your "mental" stop.
I don't even use mental stops any more because I want to react on the way it trades, in some cases I would even add more contracts if I still think I am right (dangerous but I do it) and in some cases I scratch the trade long before the pain begins because I know deep inside that it will not work anyway.
The difficult thing in trading is allow your intuition to work for you (its better than ANY system and computer) but don't allow bad emotions to influence you to much. This is the balance you have to fight for, not easy. I needed years for that.

Most people fail here and begin to look for pure mechanical systems with hard profit targets and stops and they will always fail because there are no such systems that work consistently.

The really important thing about Dax is that it is a very agressive thing to trade and you can only trade it calm and relaxed if you use an account of minimum 30.000 Euro per Fdax. At least this is my personal margin to trade it with the necessary personal distance. Otherwise I get to emotional with all the bad things involved (stick to loosers etc.)




if it is really running, exit market. Yes, it hurts sometimes but 99% of the time dax is only whipsawing. I make my money on whipsawdays and the panic days. I am not that good in "normal" trend days where most other traders might perform better.
You have to find what suits you and limit your losses the other time.

Another really bad behaviour I had in the beginning was to move the stop to break even so I could not lose any more on a given trade. Dax always came back, took my stop and then continued in my direction.

So the final stage of trading is using NO stops or fixed targets but let the market behaviour show you where to exit. Because otherwise you throw away an important part of information that you can only get AFTER your entry has been executed. Also here you have to let your intuition be your guide. You are a good trader if you have parts of your brain under control that you normaly not even use.
Hmm, sorry that was a long one. My english is not that good and I hope you understand what I wanted to say. Trust your intuition but stop emotion. Thats so difficult because its the same part of our brain. I whish there could be exercises for that. Only if you reach this level, you will be a good trader.
Trade SMALL, because only then you can control the emotional part. If money is important to you, you will never be able to suceed.
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thanks for taking the time to reply. you make some good points. something as obvious as your ratio of acct size to # of contracts actually kinda clicked the duh response in my brain that has been stubbornly ignoring the obvious: my acct is now 1/4 of what it was 8 months ago (how's that for imploding), yet i haven't realistically adjusted the # of contracts i trade (never really got near full margin back then, do it all the time now). and, yes, reality is that a few thousand dollar loss didn't change my trading then, now it does- too much size has really hurt my trading. 8 contracts in the DAX was fairly aggressive then, it's lunacy now given my acct size.
 
Quote from ASusilovic:

By the way : we are back in the trading channel since the start of this rally. Lower channel 4895.00. Upper channel 5285.50.

GL+GT
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You say we are in the bullish channel so according to it I should say that DAX was underperforming.


That was quite a ride for me in ironic sense. Wrong position, doubled position, could not look at it and after lunch I'm out without damage, lucky day !
Now I have to rethink whether to go long dax as well.
Next fib. 38.2% I believe is 5360.
 

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Quote from Topsurfi:

Goldberg vom Cognitrend just presented the latest numbers in NTV. There was never such a bearish sentiment in their survey in Dax.
He is convinced about a massive short squeeze coming.
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just for the records:
Goldberg was right again.
 
Quote from makloda:

The "massive shortsqueeze" so far was a 2% move from 4950 to 5050? Wow!
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when I posted that Dax was trading at 4720, thats a 7% gain.
But I already understand that only "facts" that confirm the bearish stance here is this board like to be heard.
Goldberg has another nice word for this behaviour, that is "cognitive dissonance". Filtering out everything that does not confirm its own view
I think you are all feeling much better without people like me that allow to throw in some aditional information that you all might not want to hear so I am out of here.

Good luck anyway !
 
Quote from ASusilovic:

Inverted hammer on a 15 min chart does not look as impressive as an inverted hammer on a 240 min chart...:)
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...which actually might occur on my screen in the next hour - but only if we keep the momentum...
 
Quote from Topsurfi:

just for the records:
Goldberg was right again.
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I remember Goldberg also observing the same extreme negative sentiment in late 2002 before we made new lows in 2003.

Nevertheless, his sentiment indicator is quite useful in certain situations.

BUT this time - "it´s different"..:D :D :D
 
Fed wappnet sich für Konjunktureinbruch

Die Hoffnungszeichen für eine allmähliche Erholung der Wirtschaft hatten sich zuletzt deutlich gemehrt. Doch nun tritt die US-Notenbank auf die Optimismusbremse und warnt vor einem kräftigen Konjunktureinbruch in diesem Jahr. Um Schlimmeres zu verhindern, erwägt die Fed einen zusätzlichen Ankauf von Staatsanleihen. Der New Yorker Aktienmarkt reagierte prompt und rutschte ins Minus.

http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik...-wappnet-sich-fuer-konjunktureinbruch;2285474
 
Quote from ASusilovic:

Fed wappnet sich für Konjunktureinbruch

Die Hoffnungszeichen für eine allmähliche Erholung der Wirtschaft hatten sich zuletzt deutlich gemehrt. Doch nun tritt die US-Notenbank auf die Optimismusbremse und warnt vor einem kräftigen Konjunktureinbruch in diesem Jahr. Um Schlimmeres zu verhindern, erwägt die Fed einen zusätzlichen Ankauf von Staatsanleihen. Der New Yorker Aktienmarkt reagierte prompt und rutschte ins Minus.

http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik...-wappnet-sich-fuer-konjunktureinbruch;2285474
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asus..pls can u translate this in just one senetence............thanks
 
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