Short DAX at 7740
- Thread starter ASusilovic
- Start date
the real numbers have absolut no influence for Dax because stock market deals with expectations (sentiment part of the index) only.
A good friend of mine produces electronic prints for Automotive industrie with companies in Germany and Tailand and while he also said current situation is as bad as it ever was he already sees signs of improvement at least for him (order inquiries etc.). He bought stocks like BMW and Daimler some weeks ago where he is making the prints for.
But yes, the stock market has already priced in a nice recovery and where we have large expectations we can also have large dissapointment.
While I always thought Dax below 4500 is a clear buy I am increasing my hedges now because I also think we will have a pullback coming, then sideways (no new lows!!) and another rally towards end of this year.
Also the rally yesterday in S&P was on very low volume and this is a warning sign. So I think for daytraders a short in Dax around 5000 could be a good short term trade.
Not a conspiracy theorist but I need to analyse better who is doing what in these markets. This is especially amazing as there is no new money entering the markets. It's all futures driven.
I agree the disconnect between reality and market expectations is huge. Markets are more than discounting a V-shape recovery. "Who" is the markets then?
Can markets bring about a V-shape recovery just because they are pricing one?
Are all this bullsh.t attemps at injecting confidence going to work?
I have been trading for a long time and I have never seen markets behave like this. Take the Dax, this market is literally jumping on the upside. It's like shooting for targets.
I also notice the absence of sellers. Short sellers on an intraday basis have been decimatedover the last 3 weeks and eal money is not selling.
I'm starting to wonder whether TARP money is not used to buy bonds collateralised by newly created ETFs.
Get banks to create ETFs, get them therefore to replicate these ETFs with futures, repackage these ETFs into bonds by tranching the risk, lever the equity tranche holder (utlimately the taxpayer) 6 to 1 or more. Do this at technical junctures in the market (666, 780, 825, 875) and destroy shorts.
A few billions of TARP money can have a tremendous impact.
From Zerohedge:
âSomething strange happened during the last 7 or 8 weeks. Doreen you probably can concur on this -- there was a power underneath the market that kept holding it up and trading the futures. I watch the futures every day and every tick, and a tremendous amount of volume came in a several points during the last few weeks, when the market was just about ready to break and shot right up again. Usually toward the end of the day â it happened a week ago Friday, at 7 minutes to 4 oâclock, almost 100,000 S&P futures contracts were traded, and then in the last 5 minutes, up to 4 oâclock, another 100,000 contracts were traded, and lifted the Dow from being down 18 to up over 44 or 50 points in 7 minutes. That is 10 to 20 billion dollars to be able to move the market in such a way. Who has that kind of money to move this market?
On top of that, the market has rallied up during the stress test uncertainty and moved the bank stocks up, and the bank stocks issues secondary â they issues stock â they raised capital into this rally. It was perfect text book setup of controlling the markets â now that the stock has been issuedâ¦â
link: http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/flagrantly-visible-hand.html
sorry if I'm ranting but I've never seen this before. Somebody seems to be waving a magic wand somewhere and stick it up the sellers' arses (me included)
:eek:
have you traded the idiotic move beginning of 2000 ?
Oh man I got so burned, believe me.
This move in Tech stocks was by far more irational then the move we are seeing now and it healed me for ever.
Never ever trade against a move just because YOU think its irational (or even worse, driven by a conspiracy). There is only one exception, if you trade very small and have deep pockets and a lot of time, thats when you can trade against such moves (I did this last time when the ZB exploded end of last year).
Someone clever said that the market can stay much longer irational when you can stay solvent.
If I see the amount of disbelieve on ET right now even from quite clever traders I tend to think we might see another final and very brutal up-surge.
I thought that you do pairs ... it is not that painfull.
Earning season is almost over and analysts were very negative, economy is weak but we are getting bad but better numbers. Market is still in bullish mode.
As we get more and more numbers about economy and maybe some defaults we can go south very fast.
We can see 3000 until the end of year.
No idea what could happen this months not even today,
.