Short DAX at 7740

Quote from piranhaxp:

I think every bull has to be aware of this .... Maybe we have range trading 4800-4970/80 only ... but what will happen below 4775/4720 until option expiration on Friday ? my favorite "Failure C"-game from yesterday didn't work today because of weakness above 4920/30 close to the 4960 200MA in the DAX-cash.

Just to be aware.

Regards
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There is so much correlation between the indices in that bull run that if it is broken then we can get another bear leg for all of them with even higher correlation.

Question remains if it goes below the bottom that we already have or stays above. What do you think?

I think that looking at some structured products with protected capital up to certain level I would not be surprised if it goes below, :-).
 
funny how the consensus here is overwhelming that we are only seeing an upleg in bear market and the only question is where to short and not where to reenter long.
Even me, who was very bullish the last months have now hedged 50% of my stocks but I am getting unsure if this was maybe to early.
Pretty neutral right now but open to the option of another runup to 5500 Dax. We are now seeing a bullish type consolidation, no reason for short imo.
 
sure, 5500 is a possibility. Nonetheless, if I were to hold cash equities, I would be very happy to sell them now, no need to wait for 5500. Waiting for real money sellers to reemerge. If they don't, yes 5500 is possible.

You can do anything in a market where no real money is present, as long as you have a plan, just in case they become present again or if you can rely on a highly probable exit strategy based on the occurrence of some expected behavior from specific market actors.
 
FDAX seems to follow my idea about a SHHS-Top ... But after this down move in the morning it's still not confirmed. I read from some trading letters that this triangle (yellow) should be broken on the upside. It failed so far (maybe a false break), because of the "more "flat" lower line of the triangle. therefore there ist the chance that a possible flag will be played dn to 4792 low or the bigger one dn to 4750 to the still open gap. One guy called me this morning and figured out that this topformation could/should be a "DIAMAND" as well.

We could count this break of the short-term uptrend as a final 4 with a potential to make a new high. Then this dn break would be a false break as I wrote earlier in this threat.

For me it's still an unsure situation infront of option expiration on Friday. You could say : typically. But it doesn't matter. The market looks like tired on the upside.

Support : 4792/4785 - 4760/45
Resist : 4870/80 - 4910 up to 4940.

We will see.

Regards
 

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Oooooooppppsssss ... My target the gap close was reached earlier I could imagine. Nice ;-) ... Now we are at the lower line of the possible flag (look at the chart).

it's decision time : SHHS or bull flag ..... we will see.

Regards.

Mike
 

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Until 4820/30 as a working resist is holding today I could imagine to dive lower down to 4725/4705 .....

Wait and see .... Protecting profits. thats all.

Regards
 
I guess all cards are now for the US session to the decide :) ... meanwhile my 4900 short I got pre-market (half covered in the morning run down) is looking pretty sweet.
 
FDAX ..... reached my absolute downside target here between 4725/05. Now it's time to think about taking 1/2 of profits because of reaching target from a possible ABC -> 127.2% to 138.2% fibo extension. What looked like to fail 2 days ago is now confirmed.

But be aware that we have the long-term uptrend from the 3600 low in March. It's coming in around 4660 with the 161.8% fibo extension for a normal absolut ABC target. For now it looks like a cross support.

The earlier talked SHHS-topformation is confirmed. we had a hourly close below 4792 wich was working as the neckline.

So taking half of profits here and at 4675 or with a new hourly close back in the flag above 4750/60 would be a good and save idea.

Can we get a follow up ? Ask the guy's which have already known the retail figures and BOE comments earlier this morning. Because who sold so aggressive this morning with a possible "bullish triangle" ? A good chart trader .... yes yes and I'm getting stupid .... ;-)

Further good luck. i'm done for today.

Regards
 

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