Short DAX at 7740

I spend time on the phone and heard the following, whether true or not, you judge.

apparently programme started both on ES and Dax at 3.15pm, buying lasted for 5 minutes and took us 30 points higher

we had 15' of consolidation with flag formation

and at 3:35pm second leg started that took us 30 points higher again in 5 minutes of buying

we then had 12 minutes of consolidation before starting another leg up that lasted again 5 minutes (started at 3:53 until 3:58) and took us 30 points higher

the last leg was in line with time compression after 2 minutes of consolidation and took us for a 20 points ride.

combination of time and price measurements are apparently in line with systematic intervention

the bid around 4702.5 ensures sufficient room for a an average weighted purchase price around 4660.

to quote my contact, systematic trading is about averaging up when the trend is up and making sure we stay at a comfortable level vs the average purchase price. There is an element of market manipulation depending on the volume you trade on the day. Obviously when markets are deep and see lots of volume, this element is negligible.
Days like today expose these behaviors as volumes are below average.
 
I'm really looking now to establish shorts for the month of May with a minimum target still of 4350.

For today, I think we come to rest on the 4680 zone if ES closes around 856/858

If we break 856 on ES, it's game over for Dax and we have a double top. We see 4550 tomorrow if the case
 
Daimler AG, the world’s second- largest maker of luxury cars, posted its first back-to-back quarterly losses in at least 10 years as the recession led to a drop in sales of Mercedes-Benz cars and trucks.

The first-quarter net loss was 1.3 billion euros ($1.7 billion), or 1.40 euros a share, Stuttgart, Germany-based Daimler said today in a statement. The loss was wider than the 790 million-euro median estimate of a Bloomberg survey of 13 analysts. Daimler shares fell as much as 8.4 percent.
 
We expect equities to provide the greatest return over the next 12 months as better macro data reduces uncertainty. We also recommend an overweight stance in credit and prefer IG over HY. We like commodities and would see any pullback as an interesting long-term buying opportunity. We are underweight cash and bonds.
 
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