Short DAX at 7740

[ASusilovic]

By the way :

Nikkei 225 Futures 8845.00. That´s 26,5 % from the lows at 7000.00. Guess that makes Japan a convincing bull market since lately their exports dropped 49 % and some other unimportant "noisy" macro data...

 

[asap]

Quote from ASusilovic:

Maybe some hedgefunds instead of short covering VW, now Daimler and BMW ?

dead on

for instance, the guys at DB keep losing money with their CROCI model -- a long/short equity model that, they claim, has beat the market since 92. obviously, as of late, they have been caught on the wrong side of the pair every time. VW was an example and many more they refuse to disclose. as always, their official statement is -- " according to our model this shouldnt wouldnt and couldnt happen" LMAO

 

[ASusilovic]

Quote from asap:

dead on

for instance, the guys at DB keep losing money with their CROCI model -- a long/short equity model that, they claim, has beat the market since 92. obviously, as of late, they have been caught on the wrong side of the pair every time. VW was an example and many more they refuse to disclose. as always, their official statement is -- " according to our model this shouldnt wouldnt and couldnt happen" LMAO

They were "tricked" into it...

 

[ASusilovic]

Worldwide Feb. semiconductor sales down 30.4% at $14.2B

Yes, we can !

 

[ASusilovic]

For the record :

Jobless rate at 26-year high

Dow +/- 0, unchanged.

 

[ASusilovic]

Quote from ASusilovic:

For the record :

Jobless rate at 26-year high

Dow +/- 0, unchanged.

Wall Street searches for direction on Friday, but Dow industrials are set to mark their biggest four-week gain since 1933.

 

[ASusilovic]

Put Call Ratio April ODAX 4.6178.

 

[ASusilovic]

EUR zone retail sales - 4 % yoy.

Factory-gate prices in the euro region fell 1.8 percent from the year-earlier month.

 

[ASusilovic]

About 53 percent of U.S. companies that issued high-risk, high-yield bonds will default over the next five years, according to Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank AG.

The figure compares with a 31 percent five-year rate in the early 1990s and 2000s, and as much as 45 percent “in a very, very different market in the Great Depression,” Reid, the London-based head of fundamental credit strategy, wrote in a note to clients today. The estimate is based on the premium investors demand to hold the notes and assumes recoveries from the defaults will be zero, Reid wrote.

“Given that this recession will easily outstrip the 90s and 00s, then 40 percent high-yield defaults over five years seems to be a minimum starting point for this default cycle,” he wrote. A 50 percent rate is “not unrealistic.”

 

[xty]

I think his views are too negative, yes i understand things are really bad. 40 -50% default rate sounds too negative to me.

maybe 18 months ago.........ok .....but i think we are close to the worst if not at the worst .

Just my own op.