Peak to trough, we expect European earnings to fall 55% this cycle. On our forecasts, earnings start to recover in 2010, but only modestly, as global growth remains below trend.
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On our forecasts, the cumulative fall for market earnings is 55% in 2008-09 combined. This is significantly worse than the 25% peak-to-trough fall in the early 1990s and 46% in 2001-02. In addition, the recovery we expect in 2010 is lacklustre compared with those previous periods, mainly reflecting slow volume growth and low price inflation.