Short DAX at 7740

[asap]

there is always at least one MA that works in past data but no one knows which one will work in future data.

thus, curve fitting MA is futile endeavour.

however, i agree with ASU when he says that 240M MA is an acceptable base for placing directional bets on the dax. but there's nothing there that could be turned into a consistent edge though. just some "go with the flow" cushion, so to speak.

jmho

 

[flyingdutchmen]

isnt that the case with every backtested strategy;
i am talking about "big round" numbers nothing
sophisticated or optimized

 

[ASusilovic]

U.S. Feb. single-family permits rise 11% to 373,000


U.S. Feb. building permits rise 3% to 547,000 annual rate


U.S. Feb. housing starts jump 22% to 583,000 annual rate

For now, mortgage borrowers are hard-pressed. Foreclosure filings climbed 30 percent in February from a year earlier, and a total of 290,631 homes received a default or auction notice or were seized by the lender, according to RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, California-based seller of default data.

 

[ASusilovic]

Short 4049.00.

 

[xty]

ASU whats ur target for both upside and downside

 

[Brendan R]

Quote from ASusilovic:

Short 4049.00.

joining you, short at 4059

 

[Brendan R]

bought back at 4052, we may experience a lift on ES that would take us to 4080, will short then

 

[xty]

Brendan ...........do u enter all at once or do u scale in

 

[younouss]

3927 is a good target for the short...

 

[Brendan R]

Quote from xty:

Brendan ...........do u enter all at once or do u scale in

I tend not to but it's a good approach if your risk management is set in stone and scaling in is not doubling in by the backdoor.

On trend days, a good approach is to increase size using the days profits with breakeven points beyond expected retracement levels. This works well on -4%/+4% days with little retracements like we have recently experienced. You just need the balls to identify those days early enough.