Short DAX at 7740

CDS Index Movements

Index Spread Daily Change Weekly Change Monthly Change
Markit iTraxx Europe Series 10 Version 1 5Y 192.42 -10.42 -1.08 44.56
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover Series 10 Version 1 5Y 1082.38 -31.63 -36.13 58.58
Markit iTraxx Europe HiVol Series 10 Version 1 5Y 407.17 -21 -9.46 66.42
Markit CDX.NA.IG.11-V1 5Y 244.57 2.61 3.07 51.71
Markit CDX.NA.HY.11-V4 5Y 1763.12 -9.28 5.28
Markit CDX.NA.IG.HVOL.11-V1 5Y 646.61 1.94 6.65 204.04
Markit CDX.NA.XO.11-V1 5Y 646 14.75 36 69.5
Markit CDX.EM.10-V1 5Y 819.91 -42.08 -42.07 35.31
Markit iTraxx Japan Series Number 10 Version 1 5Y 554.17 -1.55 42.5 104.17
 
Quote from ASusilovic:

You can always count on bulls incompetence...
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Licked my wound (-$4500) and reverse and double up, got out with a gain but surely did not like that stress



dax-3.jpg
 
Good time to get rid off my straddle calls...:) GE lately + 12 %. :) GM Tells U.S. That $2 Billion Not Needed in March :)

KKR’s Boots Said to Be Exploring Takeover of Phoenix

HAHAHHAHAHA !!!! KKR !!!
 
Trichet is allowing the ECB’s deposit rate, which lenders earn on overnight deposits with the central bank, to usurp the benchmark refinancing rate and become the main driver of short- term borrowing costs. At just 0.5 percent, the deposit rate matches the Bank of England’s key setting and is only a step away from the zero-to-0.25-percent range the Federal Reserve uses.

...

The euro overnight index average, or Eonia, fell to 0.85 percent yesterday after the ECB’s latest rate cuts took effect -- about 0.7 percentage point below the 1.5 percent benchmark rate. Overnight deposits dropped to 56.3 billion euros, the lowest amount since Oct. 8.

...

As demand dried up, interbank-lending rates dropped toward the deposit rate. The Eonia rate averaged 106 basis points above the deposit rate in the seven years before the ECB started providing unlimited liquidity in October. Since then, the gap has shriveled and yesterday stood at just 35 basis points.
 
Cumulative high yield defaults could hit 50%, says Goldman Sachs
Thursday, March 12, 2009

In a research report published last week, Goldman Sachs increased its default projections and decreased its forecast recovery rates. It says it expects the 12-month trailing high-yield default rate to hit 13.9% by the end of this year and to peak at 14% in the second quarter of 2010. Five-year cumulative defaults will reach 45.8% by the end of 2013, according to the report.

However, the analysts add that a deeper recession could push annual defaults to 17% and the cumulative five-year default rate to 50.8%.

Goldman expects recovery rates to fall to 12.5% by the end of 2009, implying five-year cumulative losses of 37%, or as much as 44.7% in the firm's deep recession scenario.
 
The madness of crowds

http://www.aleablog.com/the-madness-of-crowds/

So despite the complexity of today’s markets, the lessons in all this are oddly homespun. Mathematical models should not be relied on without a proper understanding of the economic conditions and behaviour that fed them. It is foolish to put blind faith in credit rating agencies. Do not invest in what you cannot understand. Shun arbitrage strategies that assume permanent access to liquidity. Avoid investment vehicles that inflict swingeing charges in exchange for what in most cases will amount to market performance or worse. Treat leverage with due care. Recognise that the conventional wisdom of the consulting fraternity is not conducive to contrarian behaviour, one of the keys to successful investing. Above all, beware what Charles Mackay, the 19th-century historian, called the madness of crowds.
 
FDAX 4011.00. Short squeeze testing scenario. Some managers must think we are in "backtest mode".:cool:

By the way : Swiss National Bank declaring "war" on EUR.
 
it looks like the shorts that were to be squeezed have been squeezed although we could see some short/medium trend following models that have not reversed yet.

4020 seems a key pivotal area.
 
Quote from Brendan R:

it looks like the shorts that were to be squeezed have been squeezed although we could see some short/medium trend following models that have not reversed yet.

4020 seems a key pivotal area.
More...

4032.00 is resistance.
 
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