Short DAX at 7740

Quote from Brendan R:

target met

:D
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Excellent ! Gap closed ! :D

I can´t help, but I see several targets up there in SP and FDAX. Having in mind tomorrow´s nonfarm payrolls, I am skeptic as to whether we will see today a rally, but tomorrow may be a good "buying" opportunity. :)
 
Quote from ASusilovic:

Excellent ! Gap closed ! :D

I can´t help, but I see several targets up there in SP and FDAX. Having in mind tomorrow´s nonfarm payrolls, I am skeptic as to whether we will see today a rally, but tomorrow may be a good "buying" opportunity. :)
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I agree, here are my 2 cents scattered thoughts that need to be organised.

We have also seen increased volatility in the indices (+4% -4% days) that mark the proximity of significant bottoms.

the Vix has not been making new highs. Not sure how to interpret this though.

The $TNX could decisively break 3%.

The USD index seems to be encountering resistance and could correct by 10%.

AIG and C seem temporarily to have discounted all the bad news.

Everybody seems to agree now that 2009 is a lost year and everyone is looking at 2010 and a sharp rebound ergo don't bother coming with stock market targets based on 2009 PE valuation, use 2010 instead (I don't buy into that but I trade what other buy into).

All this make a tradeable bottom around 680-660 on the ES a strong possibility with a first target 745 then 830.

Going long Dax between 3680 to 3700 could be quite rewarding for a bounce back to 4400 max.

I'm willing to leave on the table the first percents of this rally and will wait
to jump onboard.

I tend to be too early in my decisions. The bounce could start next week. My preference is for it to start late next week/the week after.

Playing the current vols with straddles is the clever way to do it, especially if you've been gamma trading the last 2 days with 4% rebalancing targets.

I would skew my gamma trading on the bullish side and start therefore underhedging on the upside.
 
Quote from Brendan R:

I agree, here are my 2 cents scattered thoughts that need to be organised.

We have also seen increased volatility in the indices (+4% -4% days) that mark the proximity of significant bottoms.

the Vix has not been making new highs. Not sure how to interpret this though.

The $TNX could decisively break 3%.

The USD index seems to be encountering resistance and could correct by 10%.

AIG and C seem temporarily to have discounted all the bad news.

Everybody seems to agree now that 2009 is a lost year and everyone is looking at 2010 and a sharp rebound ergo don't bother coming with stock market targets based on 2009 PE valuation, use 2010 instead (I don't buy into that but I trade what other buy into).

All this make a tradeable bottom around 680-660 on the ES a strong possibility with a first target 745 then 830.

Going long Dax between 3680 to 3700 could be quite rewarding for a bounce back to 4400 max.

I'm willing to leave on the table the first percents of this rally and will wait
to jump onboard.

I tend to be too early in my decisions. The bounce could start next week. My preference is for it to start late next week/the week after.

Playing the current vols with straddles is the clever way to do it, especially if you've been gamma trading the last 2 days with 4% rebalancing targets.

I would skew my gamma trading on the bullish side and start therefore underhedging on the upside.
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Apart from saying - way too much thought process I would like to disagree on USD analysis, it is in an uptrend on long term basis (no matter what reasons for that may be) & just broke out above resistance zone, your 10% correction which has not even started yet would put it at ~80, for that to happen USD has to at least take out 88 followed by 85.5 zone ImPO.
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

Apart from saying - way too much thought process I would like to disagree on USD analysis, it is in an uptrend on long term basis (no matter what reasons for that may be) & just broke out above resistance zone, your 10% correction which has not even started yet would put it at ~80, for that to happen USD has to at least take out 88 followed by 85.5 zone ImPO.
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thanks, I agree the USD is in a multi year bull trend and eventually we see parity we the EUR and the GBP and yen at 150. You're right, too much thought process, let's focus on price.
 
Quote from Brendan R:

thanks, I agree the USD is in a multi year bull trend and eventually we see parity we the EUR and the GBP and yen at 150. You're right, too much thought process, let's focus on price.
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To me this looks like a multi-year downtrend actually, I made an error in my previous post & would like to correct it by saying that USD is not in a longer term uptrend but in a rally mode on the Weekly chart, when it finishes & considering we are still in a long term downtrend (chart below) & all the expectations of an inflation with spiraling borrowing, etc USD will most likely continue its downtrend towards an obvious support on this monthly chart & that would be the next positional trade to get our claws into :)

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2335612>
 

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Have seen same buyer in the FDAX this morning as I wrote on the 03/03/09 ..... Looks like they like 3700er level ..... Rumors about a shocking PAYROLL number above 1.000.000 pressed BUND up but seems to me that equities have now interest on that .... SO FAR .... I would be surprised to see a number > 1.000.000 because of the short month.

Regards Mike
 
Quote from piranhaxp:

Have seen same buyer in the FDAX this morning as I wrote on the 03/03/09 ..... Looks like they like 3700er level ..... Rumors about a shocking PAYROLL number above 1.000.000 pressed BUND up but seems to me that equities have now interest on that .... SO FAR .... I would be surprised to see a number > 1.000.000 because of the short month.

Regards Mike
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Sellers do know only about one button : "PANIC SELL".
 
It was to inform only .... This on big buyer is still in the market ... FESX outperformed FDAX after 1807 low first time today on the uptick ..... We will see what happen in the afternoon .... Good luck for everyone .... Nice weekend .

Regards Mike
 
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