Short DAX at 7740

Quote from ASusilovic:

There is an too obvious rally going on to hit stops above 5031.00.

Maybe some bulls will be suprised how fast a rally fades...:)
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I have been far more optimistic about this bear rally than you and I still am. I made the effort to check the forecasts of German banks and although many of them are quite optimistic for year end they all say that we will retest the lows first.
Since the banks always get it wrong we might see an extension of this bear rally maybe up to 5600 and then my best guess would be a range bound market without a retest of lows, but who knows.
 
Quote from Topsurfi:

I have been far more optimistic about this bear rally than you and I still am. I made the effort to check the forecasts of German banks and although many of them are quite optimistic for year end they all say that we will retest the lows first.
Since the banks always get it wrong we might see an extension of this bear rally maybe up to 5600 and then my best guess would be a range bound market without a retest of lows, but who knows.
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So, did you buy 5600 calls ? :)
 
Quote from ASusilovic:

So, did you buy 5600 calls ? :)
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no, I am not agressively bullish enough (I was at Dax <4400) to do more than simply owning a lot of European stocks in my long term portfolio.
I am using my current margin on my future account to concentrate on shorting Bonds.
 
Quote from Topsurfi:

no, I am not agressively bullish enough (I was at Dax <4400) to do more than simply owning a lot of European stocks in my long term portfolio.
I am using my current margin on my future account to concentrate on shorting Bonds.
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Some stuff from a very well known friendly neighbourhood investmentbank :

• Consensus: P/E is currently 8.9x; EPS growth for 2008E is -14.4%, 2009E is +0.9%.

• Revisions: Estimates for 2009 have come down 7.6% over the last month.
 
• Revisions: Estimates for 2009 have come down 7.6% over the last month. [/B][/QUOTE]

and still dax has risen despite all these bad facts.
We will see a switch from Bonds to stocks no matter how bad the numbers will come in.
Money printing has started and inflation based rally is on its way.
 
Quote from Topsurfi:

• Revisions: Estimates for 2009 have come down 7.6% over the last month.
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and still dax has risen despite all these bad facts.
We will see a switch from Bonds to stocks no matter how bad the numbers will come in.
Money printing has started and inflation based rally is on its way. [/B][/QUOTE]

Yes, fund managers are hoping the worst is over. They still have way too optimistic earnings estimates.
 
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