We prefer large caps (ex-financials) to small caps. Small caps are more vulnerable to higher inflation and lower economic growth, in our view, and they trade at a premium to the large caps.
Rising costs and inflation bite into small-cap performance
We believe small caps will struggle to maintain margins in the face of higher input cost inflation and slowing economic growth. Larger caps should be less affected as they tend to have more pricing power and operate in more defensive sectors; there is also a greater proportion of commodity-related stocks in the large-cap indices. Inflation and higher interest rates are also bad for small and mid caps as they raise the cost of funding, which reduces their attractiveness as potential targets.
Large caps continue to trade at a discount
On a simple forward P/E basis, large caps are trading on 10.1x versus small caps on 11.6x. In some ways this is unusual â in previous economic downturns (2002/03 and 1991/92) large caps traded at a premium. Small caps are currently trading at a premium to their multiple in the early 1990s recession whereas large caps are at a discount to where they traded at that time. Large-cap stocks also tend to have a higher dividend yield and stronger balance sheets â both helpful attributes given that the upside risk to rates and inflation remains high.