Short DAX at 7740
- Thread starter ASusilovic
- Start date
Yesterday, I read a pretty disturbing headline :
Fed Says U.S. Banks Are Tightening Lending Standards
I can assure you that this kind of headline is definetely not good for any economy. Last time, I read this kind of headline in Germany 7 years ago, we went into recession....
Fed Says U.S. Banks Are Tightening Lending Standards
I can assure you that this kind of headline is definetely not good for any economy. Last time, I read this kind of headline in Germany 7 years ago, we went into recession....
I am not refering to lending between banks....
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aBMbj1aE86jk
JSPMK,
Well, consumers canât used credit cards to pay off debt anymore.
As your interest is the DAX, there may be fireworks on Friday from Deutsche Bank, causing a ripple effect:
Tue 05/02/2008 07:37
FRANKFURT (Thomson Financial) - Deutsche Bank AG could face a multi-bln-usd credit fallout if tycoon Harry Macklowe fails to refinance by Friday a loan from the bank used to invest in Manhattan real estate, Handelsblatt quoted sources close to the matter as saying.
Macklowe borrowed 5.8 bln usd from Germany's largest bank to acquire seven Manhattan office buildings early last year.
The debt is scheduled to come due at the end of the week but Macklowe has not yet managed to refinance it, according to the paper.
It said Deutsche Bank has taken effective control of the buildings, but added that it is questionable whether this collateral will fully cover the debt as the buildings' value has dropped over recent months.
Deutsche Bank declined to comment, the newspaper said.
A spokesman for Macklowe said negotiations with Deutsche Bank are currently underway.
Grant.
Well, consumers canât used credit cards to pay off debt anymore.
As your interest is the DAX, there may be fireworks on Friday from Deutsche Bank, causing a ripple effect:
Tue 05/02/2008 07:37
FRANKFURT (Thomson Financial) - Deutsche Bank AG could face a multi-bln-usd credit fallout if tycoon Harry Macklowe fails to refinance by Friday a loan from the bank used to invest in Manhattan real estate, Handelsblatt quoted sources close to the matter as saying.
Macklowe borrowed 5.8 bln usd from Germany's largest bank to acquire seven Manhattan office buildings early last year.
The debt is scheduled to come due at the end of the week but Macklowe has not yet managed to refinance it, according to the paper.
It said Deutsche Bank has taken effective control of the buildings, but added that it is questionable whether this collateral will fully cover the debt as the buildings' value has dropped over recent months.
Deutsche Bank declined to comment, the newspaper said.
A spokesman for Macklowe said negotiations with Deutsche Bank are currently underway.
Grant.
Quote from JSSPMK:
I think Egg (Pru) also, but what impact is that going to have on market?
I still standby DAX at 4000, don't ask when
We expect European profits to fall by 5.5% this year ex financials and 8% overall. Using both a top-down and bottom-up approach, we estimate the market is now fully discounting a profit recession, with about 75% probability ex financials. While the market is now at fair value, risks of an overshoot on ârecouplingâ and financial fears remain high.
We expect profits to fall by 5.5% ex financials in 2008
While consensus profit expectations remain close to 10% growth this year, with rising margins, we have long argued that profits would be flat at best. Updating our top-down profit model for recent economics downgrades, leaves us with a forecast fall in net income pre exceptionals and goodwill of 5.3% ex financials (-7.8% for the total market). Profits would need to fall 17% to get back to the long-run trend; however, we believe mean reversion to long-run trend is unlikely given structural boosts from globalization.
TY! I think 10% consensus looks a tad optimistic now ImO, monthly chart's histogram does not support bullish outlooks for 2008 at least, that monthly chart would need to go through a basing period for me to consider that this is a continuation cycle, until then I see quite a few limit down days occurring, basically oversold or not price has to indicate that market is ready for a bounce that might lead to continuation. ImO.