I remember March 1996, a Friday, NFP release. Over 700k jobs created. Treasuries limit down ! 96 / 32 ! Big S&P 500 down 30 points, trading halted for 30 minutes. Thereafter another drop !
So far as to "negative" considerations...
Short DAX at 7740
- Thread starter ASusilovic
- Start date
I remember March 1996, a Friday, NFP release. Over 700k jobs created. Treasuries limit down ! 96 / 32 ! Big S&P 500 down 30 points, trading halted for 30 minutes. Thereafter another drop !
So far as to "negative" considerations...
Quote from ASusilovic:
Don´t wanto to bother you out there but I heard on BLOOMERG TV that HSBC is expecting 400k jobs lost in NFP numbers tomorrow...Just a rumor...No warranty as to the validity...
Expectations are for +100K so if its -400K then this could provide a nice shock to the market.
I'll put my money on another -ve number this month of around 144K.
Hi JSSPMK,
interesting topic. I am also trading mainly dax.
What indicators do you use (Histogram ?, MACD?)
I use no indicators, I always look for "strange" behaviour.
Like for example showing relativ strength against ES, which often means a lot of traders may soon be on wrong side if ES recovers etc.
I often trade Dax and hedge with ES and vice versa. The best trades are often Dax panic moves (on both sides long and short) after Dax Cash close.
I never use hard stops in Dax.
interesting topic. I am also trading mainly dax.
What indicators do you use (Histogram ?, MACD?)
I use no indicators, I always look for "strange" behaviour.
Like for example showing relativ strength against ES, which often means a lot of traders may soon be on wrong side if ES recovers etc.
I often trade Dax and hedge with ES and vice versa. The best trades are often Dax panic moves (on both sides long and short) after Dax Cash close.
I never use hard stops in Dax.
Quote from makloda:
Or those mysterious "DAX IS SUDDENLY COMPLETLY IGNORING ES MOVEMENT" after the DAX cash close
Mysterious, mysterious, mysterious....hmmmm....Oh, now I know what you mean ! =>
ECB Says Banks Expect Credit Conditions to Tighten
European banks may make it harder for companies and consumers to borrow money in the next three months after the slump in the U.S. subprime mortgage market increased the cost of credit, the European Central Bank said.
``Banks generally reported'' that the recent credit-market turmoil ``may hamper funding over the next three months,'' the Frankfurt-based ECB said in its quarterly bank lending survey, which was published a month earlier than usual today. ``Banks' willingness to lend over the next three months may be affected, to some extent, by the effect of the credit market events on the costs related to the banks' capital position.''
[...]
Banks also forecast ``a further net tightening of credit standards'' for home purchases in the fourth quarter and conditions for consumers are expected to ``tighten considerably,'' the ECB said. Banks expect net demand for housing loans to remain ``significantly negative'' and consumer-credit demand to stay unchanged.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aBGE5Q41I7Ic&refer=economy
Sometimes it´s a good idea to listen to the ECB...They warned markets months ago about "herd-like" mentality in credit derivatives...I think rate hike cycle is definetely over...
European banks may make it harder for companies and consumers to borrow money in the next three months after the slump in the U.S. subprime mortgage market increased the cost of credit, the European Central Bank said.
``Banks generally reported'' that the recent credit-market turmoil ``may hamper funding over the next three months,'' the Frankfurt-based ECB said in its quarterly bank lending survey, which was published a month earlier than usual today. ``Banks' willingness to lend over the next three months may be affected, to some extent, by the effect of the credit market events on the costs related to the banks' capital position.''
[...]
Banks also forecast ``a further net tightening of credit standards'' for home purchases in the fourth quarter and conditions for consumers are expected to ``tighten considerably,'' the ECB said. Banks expect net demand for housing loans to remain ``significantly negative'' and consumer-credit demand to stay unchanged.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aBGE5Q41I7Ic&refer=economy
Sometimes it´s a good idea to listen to the ECB...They warned markets months ago about "herd-like" mentality in credit derivatives...I think rate hike cycle is definetely over...
I only use histogram, it's now positive on 1 minute chart, bullish pattern
closed into momentum
Topsurfi, I think I also trade price action, but instead of tape I use histogram calculations. ImO histogram deciphers tape and records a clearer picture what's been done on bid/ask over last period, whatever it might be, especially divergences. There is a reason for everything and indeed there is/are reasons why price pulls away from an indicator. I did try tape based trading but found that it wasn't for me, it's more for the young and very sharp minded ones, I am just a piker that sat in front of a monitor for a long long time
closed into momentum
Topsurfi, I think I also trade price action, but instead of tape I use histogram calculations. ImO histogram deciphers tape and records a clearer picture what's been done on bid/ask over last period, whatever it might be, especially divergences. There is a reason for everything and indeed there is/are reasons why price pulls away from an indicator. I did try tape based trading but found that it wasn't for me, it's more for the young and very sharp minded ones, I am just a piker that sat in front of a monitor for a long long time