Has been a bad week for me - although my portfolio is hedged. Didn´t expect this sellout, i.e. spike in vola.
Fundamentally, nothing has changed. O.K. there´s some credit spread widening on the way. But, so what ? This is normal repricing of risk. Some might argue that credit widening has effect of raising interest rates...HA, ha...But bear in mind this does not apply to the whole economy in U.S. !!!
Does it have any implications on world economy ? Are U.S. subprime mortgage worries that important to global economy ?
Answer : Not as much as mainstream media wants us to believe !
The yield at the long end of the curve is below 5 %.
Japan still with very low interest rates, even when BOJ hikes in August. Who cares about a quarter hike ??
Carry trades will come back. Definetely.
Oil prices in U.S. going up - imported U.S. inflation going up- U.S. exports pretty decent => might be good setup for a stronger USD in coming month.
And finally : Do I expect slowing earnings by U.S. compamanies ? Well, have to differentiate on this issue :
certain industries - like real estate and mortgage related will have a hard time. But all others are benefitting from a buoyant global economic environment.
Therefore : this correction is in some way very good for the markets. It gives money managers the possibility to put some extensive cash reserves to work.
This is a bargain hunting opportunity.
