Short DAX at 7740
- Thread starter ASusilovic
- Start date
this short at 6304 is position trading and as I mentioned I plan to hold it for the next 2 weeks
sub 6200 to me means 5800 as a first objective within these 2 weeks
6330-6340 may be touched again before I'm proven right
at 6380 I believe I would be definitely proven wrong
Because of the time frame for the position to be proven right, I must allow for markets to move sideways before a definite breakout occurs.
From a risk reward point of view, shorting around 6300 with a stop at 6380 and taking profits around 5800 would have worked several times in the last 12 months.
Today's intraday volatility in equities and FX reinforces my belief we're to break to the downside. This increased vol is usually associated with a top but can last several days.
If we break 6380 I think we will revisit the highs for the year and would short again playing a double top.
This position trading reflects a bearish macro view.
sub 6200 to me means 5800 as a first objective within these 2 weeks
6330-6340 may be touched again before I'm proven right
at 6380 I believe I would be definitely proven wrong
Because of the time frame for the position to be proven right, I must allow for markets to move sideways before a definite breakout occurs.
From a risk reward point of view, shorting around 6300 with a stop at 6380 and taking profits around 5800 would have worked several times in the last 12 months.
Today's intraday volatility in equities and FX reinforces my belief we're to break to the downside. This increased vol is usually associated with a top but can last several days.
If we break 6380 I think we will revisit the highs for the year and would short again playing a double top.
This position trading reflects a bearish macro view.
Just hedge yourself to the upside. I have an armada of 6300, 6350, 6400 hedges in place. All of them "financed" by short positions in FDAX.
If our "smart" QE believers have brass balls they will attack strongly in the belief you can buy everything for "USD". LOL !
Two comments : any further announcement of further QE in the US will be disastrous for Treasuries ! I think, you would see a sell off of your life time. The FED would lose all its credibility, because its then not anymore a fight against deflation.
Slow growth is SLOW growth and even if GDP is expanding a meager 1 % ! The argument of the FED to stimulate employment is pure bullsh1t. The FED is repairing banks balance sheets through the backdoor and circumventing Congress. It´s so easy to see what this conglomerate of bankster "budddies" is actually doing.
If our "smart" QE believers have brass balls they will attack strongly in the belief you can buy everything for "USD". LOL !
Two comments : any further announcement of further QE in the US will be disastrous for Treasuries ! I think, you would see a sell off of your life time. The FED would lose all its credibility, because its then not anymore a fight against deflation.
Slow growth is SLOW growth and even if GDP is expanding a meager 1 % ! The argument of the FED to stimulate employment is pure bullsh1t. The FED is repairing banks balance sheets through the backdoor and circumventing Congress. It´s so easy to see what this conglomerate of bankster "budddies" is actually doing.
Quote from macroman:
Looks like too many of us thinking the same so it probably will not work
If it proves to be correct though, more opportunities to add to position as it will be longer downturn in duration imho.
Yes, I think so, I do not know where are stop losses (maybe 6330 or do) but to me it looks like a losing game.
HKG 1.3%, Nikkei +0.7%, Korea +0.8% too tuch money in shorts in EU.
Well, I'm short too but I do not like DAX movement, it is a ticking bomb.
As y'day example I went short Dow 10861, ok, went down to 10820 but climbed again to 10880 before settling at 10860.
I agree with all these comments, but it doesn't look like there are many shorts out there and the one that are short seem to be cleverly hedging the upside.
I really believe the economies are slowing down. The US just had an inventory bounce but the situation is dire. Europe benefited from a weak euro last quarter and boosted its exports and benefited from the inventory stock up. Now with the "strong" Euro, I expect a very poor Q4. Japan is crumbling. China? No clue what's going on there. Last I heard they were demolishing half-finished buildings to build new ones....
So the situation globally is poor. Can QE solve this problem? Can inflation be kickstarted? I doubt it.
Treasuries are also sending a very powerful message.
Can the market be pushed another 2 percent, yes. We can touch 1160 on the ES. But I believe we're gonna see sub 1100 in October at some stage.
I really believe the economies are slowing down. The US just had an inventory bounce but the situation is dire. Europe benefited from a weak euro last quarter and boosted its exports and benefited from the inventory stock up. Now with the "strong" Euro, I expect a very poor Q4. Japan is crumbling. China? No clue what's going on there. Last I heard they were demolishing half-finished buildings to build new ones....
So the situation globally is poor. Can QE solve this problem? Can inflation be kickstarted? I doubt it.
Treasuries are also sending a very powerful message.
Can the market be pushed another 2 percent, yes. We can touch 1160 on the ES. But I believe we're gonna see sub 1100 in October at some stage.
Waiting for exhaustion of bulls to go short again.
6328-6332.00 short area. Strong sell.