Europeâs biggest insurer and the manager of a portfolio of about $600 billion, expects stocks to fall because economic recovery is lagging behind the seven-month jump in the Standard & Poorâs 500 Index.
âThe market rally right now is -- my personal view is -- way ahead of real-life developments,â Paul Achleitner, head of finance at Munich-based Allianz, said yesterday in an interview at Bloomberg headquarters in New York. âThe expectation level is so high, youâre going to have the risk that thereâs going to be a discrepancy in expectationâ and economic data, Achleitner said.
The S&P 500 has surged 58 percent from a 12-year low on March 9 amid signs the worst U.S. recession since the Great Depression is abating. Still, unemployment in the U.S. climbed in September to 9.8 percent, the highest level since 1983, and economists expect a rebound in consumer spending will wane as joblessness surpasses 10 percent.
âYouâve got to make sure that you donât commit yourself too fast,â Achleitner said of managing assets backing Allianzâs insurance policies. âWe are cautious on the equity markets in terms of how much we are actually putting to work there.â
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