Short DAX at 7740

German exports and company spending plunged in the first quarter, dragging Europe’s largest economy into its deepest slump on record.

Exports dropped 9.7 percent from the fourth quarter and company investment declined 7.9 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Gross domestic product fell a seasonally adjusted 3.8 percent from the previous three months, the office said, confirming an initial estimate from May 15. That’s the steepest drop since quarterly data were first compiled in 1970.

The Nikkei estimates that Japan passenger car production in fiscal 2009 will likely decrease to 1979 levels, mostly due to a plunge in exports.

The projection, which was compiled based on automakers’ data and interviews with company officials, calls for the eight Japanese passenger car firms to assemble 8.21 million vehicles in the year ending in March 2010, 14% fewer than last year and the second consecutive annual decline, following a 15% fall in fiscal 2008.

Welcome back in the 70th ! Any further comment needed ? V Recovery ? Dream on !

Nevertheless, with regards to fair value calculations of equities : you have always to keep in mind what the alternative is to equity investments . Real estate, bonds, infrastructure, real investments ? If inflation returns, stocks might actually be overpriced. If we stay at these levels on the long term bond yields, stocks may have some more upward momentum.
 
I found this quite interesting:

"Already we have real GDP levels that are up only about 3pc from 2000 in Germany – ie growth has been only a little over ¼pc a year – making this a lost decade for much of continental Europe on a worse scale than Japan in the 1990s." (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...t-recession-since-War-as-Germany-suffers.html)

~0.25 annualized real GDP growth in Germany over the last 9 years. So much for the German "Wunder"-Economy.
 
Quote from David M:

same crap like yesterday 29 components in the red and we just managed to rise 50 points from the low ...

well, that was nice turnaround from 4800 to 4950, I was not in.
I do not know whether I should cry or be happy, :-).
 
Quote from uexkuell:

Thank you for the link.

What confuses me (slide 27):
"As an option trader I deem dynamic hedging unattainable - most of the package variance comes from the jumps."

I thought, Taleb is a major exponent of dyn. hedging? Is he making fun?

I think he is major component of black swans like jumps.

Best way to hedge is static hedging, :-).
 
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