Short DAX at 7740

Quote from ASusilovic:

500k jobs lost in US. Argument for rising equity prices is jobless numbers is "lagging indicator". Normally, I would agree but this time it is different. There is more come. More layoffs. Especially in Europe there is more to come.
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yes, there will be much more layoffs but this has nothing to do with stock prices. In all recessions stock prices begin to go up while employment is still getting worse.
 
Quote from Topsurfi:

yes, there will be much more layoffs but this has nothing to do with stock prices. In all recessions stock prices begin to go up while employment is still getting worse.
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You maybe right in your observation but ASusilovic was just a bit advanced in time by one or two days, he will make an awful lot of money on this trade, most of the time he is right! :D

Good luck to all!
 
Quote from Renah:
he will make an awful lot of money on this trade, most of the time he is right! :D
Good luck to all! [/B]
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we might see 4000 again but I think it is more likely we hit 5300 FIRST. There are a lot of signs this bear rally will have strong legs.
 
Quote from Renah:

You maybe right in your observation but ASusilovic was just a bit advanced in time by one or two days, he will make an awful lot of money on this trade, most of the time he is right! :D

Good luck to all!
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i would agree that, to my recollection, he's right more than wrong. that said...

if he is wrong, he'll tell you he was hedged. how one is hedged short the DAX without giving up most of the upside, i have yet to figure out. i've asked twice how he does this, he says he'll answer- he never does.

so, conclude that his 'hedge' is a bunch of shit OR... assume he is hedged all the time, thus canceling out much of his gain on his huge moves.

ASus: feel free to enlighten me as to where i'm wrong...

oh, and if i was up 330 unhedged points in the DAX, i'd have been more than a little tempted to take some off the table!
 
Quote from Topsurfi:

we might see 4000 again but I think it is more likely we hit 5300 FIRST. There are a lot of signs this bear rally will have strong legs.
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5300 ? Just confirmation of greater fool theory, isn´t it ? :D
 
Quote from younouss:

then you are not hedged on your short 4708?
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I bought some 5300 Calls, when we breached 4300 in FDAX and I bought some 3750 puts some weeks ago. And I have some other hedges at different other strike prices in place. Of course, it does not make sense to be delta-hedged otherwise your protection costs would diminish your profitability.

At which levels ( strike prices ) hedges are to be applied, is an art. A good idea is to take a look at EXPECTED volatilities for the weeks to come.
 
Quote from ASusilovic:

At which levels ( strike prices ) hedges are to be applied, is an art. A good idea is to take a look at EXPECTED volatilities for the weeks to come. [/B]
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So true! I'm always wrong to find out the pertinent point to hedge my position. But I'm still alive in this crazy market!
 
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