Short DAX at 7740

Quote from makloda:

Well I kinda dislike the notion that the smart money is "betting" on a sell-off. They should know you can't time sell-offs and it's next to impossible to systematically become rich playing sell-offs. Hence, I thought "defensive" (protecting recent gains) is a better word :)
More...

I agree with you. Exact timing is not possible, but very high probability that smart money is hesitating to accumulate further long positions.
 
Quote from ASusilovic:

Best indicator for a selloff in the US is the OEX PCR Ratio. As of yesterday it stays at 3,85. Therefore :
Look for the DOW and ES to correct today massively -> DAX will fall too, hard.

Take a look at the Put-Call-Ratio :

05/15/2007, 839166, 1131113, 1970279, 1.35
05/16/2007, 932992, 1352961, 2285953, 1.45
05/17/2007, 905016, 1099667, 2004683, 1.22
05/18/2007, 686096, 1435048, 2121144, 2.09
05/21/2007, 573064, 1148792, 1721856, 2.00
05/22/2007, 316277, 1218500, 1534777, 3.85

Good luck !
More...
Are the writers less "smart" than the holders?
At what price did they accept the risk?
 
05/16/2007, 932992, 1352961, 2285953, 1.45
05/17/2007, 905016, 1099667, 2004683, 1.22
05/18/2007, 686096, 1435048, 2121144, 2.09
05/21/2007, 573064, 1148792, 1721856, 2.00
05/22/2007, 316277, 1218500, 1534777, 3.85
05/23/2007, 578144, 946676, 1524820, 1.64

Short covering...
 
Quote from makloda:

Covered my short at 7776, down like 18k EUR :p Congrats to the bulls!
More...

Really bad timing, makloda! Sorry for you.
As you can see I was right with my assumption that a correction is near. My target for ES has been 1517. We went much further. Well, I contribute these exaggerations especially to the quant traders. A lot of computer-related unsophisticated herd-like trading is going on in the markets. Guys looking at "indicators" like "Momentum", "Bollinger Bands", "360 Minute Charts" and bla, bla, bla...
 
Quote from ASusilovic:

Really bad timing, makloda! Sorry for you.
More...
Yea it's part of the game, looks like I gave away 100 points, and I had a couple contracts on :p

Did you have more luck or got out early too?
 
Quote from makloda:

Yea it's part of the game, looks like I gave away 100 points, and I had a couple contracts on :p

Did you have more luck or got out early too?
More...

Well as I expected the sell-off, I build up my short positions in the DAX and also in ES. Flattened ES at 1522.25 and 1517.50.
Flattened one part of my DAX positions at 7703,50 and 7688.50. I have to reposition my downside target for the DAX : raising from 7590 to 7618 - 7625. Still bearish for this market and for ES, too. I am a seller on any rally. Still waiting to sell some DAX at 7553.00.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top