Short CAT
- Thread starter hajimow
- Start date
May I ask how you determined CAT is overvalued by $30? Thanks.
Sounds like your looking at fundamentals but if the chart matches the fundamental veiw then you might be onto some thing. Why not post a chart backing your case ?
I understand its tough to call an exact top, but if you wait for that confirmation, you miss 10 points. 10%
If you then enter a short position at $97... how much more of a drop are you planning for? Or are you planning that $97 becomes the new ceiling (resistance) and you'll just ride it out from there?
There's gotta be a better way. Because I would suspect a 10% drop on CAT would mean dead money for quite awhile regarding movement and volatility.
The best way if are short at $97 is to have enough cash to short more at 108 so you can average down. If I am short at $97, I sell call 110 to get cash or average at (110+97)/n .
I feel market is toppy and I predict HD, MMM, CAT will go lower. I am going long on SBUX and GLD at the current price.
Good points and questions.
Here's my reasoning/game plan
Target = 2009 low vicinity, 11.6 to 15 dollars or bankrupt on its way down in which case Joe does not get paid. So will have to watch the shenanigans and read between the lines and be ready to jump ship at any time, well before the stampede begins
current full wave uptrend began in 1960s - this is my view as I prepare for battle in the opposite direction
Major primary trend top expected - normal retracement expected = 91%, i.e. to Fib support 9.0%
(23.6%/1.618, then divide again and then once more to get to 9 = that's where all fully completed wave patterns aka depressions go, after stopping at 38.2, 50, 61.8, 78.6, 88.3% levels)
So 10 points? YAWN! Heck I've often given that to waitresses who love me and give me exc. service. I'm playing this game for the full benefit it was designed to provide to the lone warrior who was willing to die during preparation and came near death often during formative years, when many commented, "he is unconscious in bed for days curled up as a fetus)