I was looking at BTC & ETH IV yesterday. Disclosure: I don’t trade crypto at all. I have a tiny allocation to SOL and ETH, so I’m looking for reasons why I shouldn’t do this trade. ETH implied volatility now trades below BTC IV, which never lasted very long looking at the history.
Realized volatility for both BTC and ETH is currently in its low percentiles. Historically, such periods of low volatility have often been followed by an increase in realized volatility, leading subsequently to an ramp up in implied volatility.
I can see ETH has a few conferences upcoming and Dencun (lower gas fees) incoming. BTC had a potential catalyst squashed recently with Blackrock getting a return-to-sender from the SEC and not much on the horizon until October.
Looking at the realized vol cones 60 days or later looks fine to me percentile wise.
As this is my first venture into crypto volatility, am I missing something here (event, upcoming regulations, etc.)? It looks to me like going long on ETH IV and short on BTC IV ~60 DTE would make sense here.
Realized volatility for both BTC and ETH is currently in its low percentiles. Historically, such periods of low volatility have often been followed by an increase in realized volatility, leading subsequently to an ramp up in implied volatility.
I can see ETH has a few conferences upcoming and Dencun (lower gas fees) incoming. BTC had a potential catalyst squashed recently with Blackrock getting a return-to-sender from the SEC and not much on the horizon until October.
Looking at the realized vol cones 60 days or later looks fine to me percentile wise.
As this is my first venture into crypto volatility, am I missing something here (event, upcoming regulations, etc.)? It looks to me like going long on ETH IV and short on BTC IV ~60 DTE would make sense here.
